UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland
Newark, USA
9 May 2026
Middleweight
VS
72%
Gautier
28%
Diaz
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 1:10
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Gautier
Gautier is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 47 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Gautier has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 27 points.
Diaz has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Diaz has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Gautier
Diaz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"
Height
6'4"
81"+
Reach
79"
24+
Age
35
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Gautier
Diaz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
78.0
30.6
71.2
Performance Avg
28.3
52
Quality of Victory
25
100
Momentum Score
40
Gautier
Diaz
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.5
3.0
48%
Strike Accuracy
51%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
4 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
1
4
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
9Distance2
0Clinch0
2Ground0
Gautier
Diaz
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.5
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
0.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Gautier
Diaz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
100
56
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/12 fights
Chin rating based on
3/14 fights
Gautier
Diaz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
40
5-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Gautier
Diaz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
0%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Gautier
Diaz
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
0.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
0.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
3.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
GautierDiaz
Strike Zones
Gautier
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedDiaz
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Gautier targets the head (64% of attacks) — Diaz absorbs 64% of strikes there
🎯Diaz targets the head (50% of attacks) — Gautier absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Gautier
RND
Diaz
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Gautier · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Diaz · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Gautier · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Ozzy DiazRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · Dec · R3
Andrey PulyaevRating 5.6Decision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · KO · R1
Tre'ston VinesRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
W · KO · R1
Robert ValentinRating 5.6KO/TKO
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
W · KO · R1
Jose Daniel MedinaRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
Diaz · Last 3
L · KO · R2
Ateba GautierRating 4.9KO/TKO
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · Dec · R3
Djorden SantosRating 4.5Decision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
L · KO · R1
Zhang MingyangRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo · 2024-11