UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm
Melbourne, Australia
14 Nov 2015
Welterweight
VS
56%
Noke
44%
Sobotta
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:01
KN
Kyle Noke
22 – 10
6'1"76" reachSouthpaw46 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 20
PS
Peter Sobotta
17 – 7
Well-Rounded2-fight slide39 yrsSouthpaw75" reach6'0"
CFR 15

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Noke

This is a genuine toss-up — Noke at 56% vs Sobotta at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Noke has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.

Noke has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Noke's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Sobotta has a chin rating of 48 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Noke
Sobotta
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
6'0"
76"+
Reach
75"
46
Age
+39
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Noke
Sobotta
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.5
15.1
50.4
Performance Avg
39.8
51
Quality of Victory
40
59
Momentum Score
50
Noke
Sobotta
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
0.7
53%
Strike Accuracy
39%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.3
3 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
2
2
Body
0
8
Leg
0
RangeRange
11Distance2
0Clinch0
12Ground0
Noke
Sobotta
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.1
/ 10
3.2
/ 10
2.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.2
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
2
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Noke
Sobotta
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
48
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/32 fights
Chin rating based on
10/24 fights
Noke
Sobotta
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
50
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Noke
Sobotta
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
83%
50%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Noke
Sobotta
Striking6.0 / 3.3Volume2.3 / 4.8Grappling3.1 / 3.2Wrestling2.1 / 2.2Submission3.3 / 2.5Pressure7.3 / 4.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.3
3.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
7.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
2.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
Noke
Strike Zones
Sobotta
Noke
Attacking
13HEAD2BODY8LEGS23 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Sobotta
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD2BODY8LEGS23 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Noke targets the head (57% of attacks) — Sobotta absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Sobotta targets the head (100% of attacks) — Noke absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Noke
RND
Sobotta
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Noke · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.2W5.2W5.0W1.7L5.5L5.0W5.5L4.5W5.0W5.5L2.8L5.5L2010-062011-082014-042016-012016-11
WinLossTrend

Sobotta · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.5L5.5L5.5L4.5W5.0W1.5L4.8W5.2W5.1L5.5L2009-062014-052016-092020-07
WinLossTrend

Noke · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Omari AkhmedovRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson · 2016-11
L · Sub · R2
Keita NakamuraRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker · 2016-07
L · Dec · R3
Alex MoronoRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit · 2016-01
W · KO · R1
Peter SobottaRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm · 2015-11
W · Dec · R3
Jonavin WebbRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt · 2015-05

Sobotta · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Alex OliveiraRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
L · KO · R3
Leon EdwardsRating 5.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov · 2018-03
W · KO · R2
Ben SaundersRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira · 2017-05
W · Dec · R3
Nicolas DalbyRating 4.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett · 2016-09
L · KO · R1
Kyle NokeRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm · 2015-11

News & Media

Kyle Noke · Peter Sobotta
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