UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
16 Jan 2021
Middleweight
VS
74%
Buckley
26%
Chirico
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:12
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Buckley
Buckley is a strong favourite at 74% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 38 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Buckley throws more volume but Chirico connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Buckley's chin rating of 28 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Chirico has a chin rating of 36 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Buckley
Chirico
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+6'0"
76"+
Reach
74"
32+
Age
36
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Buckley
Chirico
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
58.0
20.4
50.6
Performance Avg
39.3
41
Quality of Victory
41
100
Momentum Score
25
Buckley
Chirico
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.2
41%
Strike Accuracy
43%
6.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.7
6 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
6
1
Body
4
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
3Distance9
0Clinch0
0Ground3
Buckley
Chirico
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
0.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
0.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Buckley
Chirico
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
28
36
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/29 fights
Chin rating based on
11/20 fights
Buckley
Chirico
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
25
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Buckley
Chirico
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
55%
50%
6
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Buckley
Chirico
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.7
0.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
0.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.6
3.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.7
BuckleyChirico
Strike Zones
Buckley
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedChirico
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Buckley targets the head (67% of attacks) — Chirico absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Chirico targets the head (50% of attacks) — Buckley absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Buckley
RND
Chirico
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Buckley · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Chirico · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Buckley · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Sean BradyRating 6.6Decision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
W · R3
Colby CovingtonRating 5.6UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
W · KO · R3
Stephen ThompsonRating 6.1KO/TKO
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Nursulton RuziboevRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
Chirico · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Roman KopylovRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa · 2022-09
L · KO · R1
Abdul Razak AlhassanRating 3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze · 2021-08
W · KO · R1
Joaquin BuckleyRating 6.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar · 2021-01
L · Dec · R3
Zak CummingsRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic · 2020-08
L · Dec · R3
Makhmud MuradovRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier · 2019-09