METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez
Las Vegas, USA
9 Oct 2021
Heavyweight
VS
86%
Romanov
14%
Vanderaa
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:43
★ Official Result
Alexandr RomanovwinsKO/TKOR2 · 4:43
def. Jared Vanderaa · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Romanov
→
Actual result
Romanov wins
KO/TKO · R2
Pre-fight analysis
Romanov is a strong favourite at 86% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 42 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Romanov has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.
Risk flags
Romanov's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Vanderaa has a chin rating of 18 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
RomanovVanderaa
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Romanov
Vanderaa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'4"
75"
Reach
+80"
35
Age
+34
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Romanov
Vanderaa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
50.5
8.4
52.6
Performance Avg
20.7
41
Quality of Victory
25
70
Momentum Score
0
Romanov
Vanderaa
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.8
/ 10
0.3
/ 10
6.1
Style: Pressure
0.4
4.8
Style: Volume
8.3
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
42
Head
0
5
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance0
0Clinch0
45Ground0
Romanov
Vanderaa
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.5
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
3.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
4.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
3
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Romanov
Vanderaa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
18
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/21 fights
Chin rating based on
7/22 fights
Romanov
Vanderaa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
70
0
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Romanov
Vanderaa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
57%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Romanov
Vanderaa
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.3
4.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
3.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
4.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.4
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.3
RomanovVanderaa
Strike Zones
Romanov
Attacking
47 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedVanderaa
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
47 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Romanov targets the head (89% of attacks) — Vanderaa absorbs 89% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Romanov
RND
Vanderaa
0/0R00/0
Romanov · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Rodrigo NascimentoDecision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · 2024-11
L · Sub · R1
Jailton AlmeidaSubmission
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
W · Dec · R3
Blagoy IvanovDecision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov · 2023-07
L · KO · R1
Alexander VolkovKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · 2023-03
L · Dec · R3
Marcin TyburaDecision
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08
Vanderaa · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · 2022-10
L · KO · R3
Chase ShermanKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · 2022-07
L · Sub · R1
Aleksei OleinikSubmission
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · 2022-04
L · Dec · R3
Andrei ArlovskiDecision
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · 2022-02
L · KO · R2
Alexandr RomanovKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez · 2021-10