UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez
Las Vegas, USA
9 Oct 2021
Heavyweight
VS
86%
Romanov
14%
Vanderaa
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:43
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Romanov
Romanov is a strong favourite at 86% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 42 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Romanov has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.
Romanov has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Romanov's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Vanderaa has a chin rating of 18 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Romanov
Vanderaa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'4"
75"
Reach
+80"
35
Age
+34
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Romanov
Vanderaa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
50.5
8.4
52.6
Performance Avg
20.7
41
Quality of Victory
25
70
Momentum Score
0
Romanov
Vanderaa
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
2.0
52%
Strike Accuracy
45%
2.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.3
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
42
Head
0
5
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance0
0Clinch0
45Ground0
Romanov
Vanderaa
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.5
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
3.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
4.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
3
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Romanov
Vanderaa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
18
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/21 fights
Chin rating based on
7/22 fights
Romanov
Vanderaa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
70
0
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Romanov
Vanderaa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
57%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Romanov
Vanderaa
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.3
4.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
3.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
4.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.4
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.3
RomanovVanderaa
Strike Zones
Romanov
Attacking
47 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedVanderaa
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
47 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Romanov targets the head (89% of attacks) — Vanderaa absorbs 89% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Romanov
RND
Vanderaa
0/0R00/0
Romanov · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Vanderaa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Romanov · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Rodrigo NascimentoRating 4.8Decision
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L · Sub · R1
Jailton AlmeidaRating 3.3Submission
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W · Dec · R3
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L · KO · R1
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UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · 2023-03
L · Dec · R3
Marcin TyburaRating 5.9Decision
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08
Vanderaa · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · 2022-10
L · KO · R3
Chase ShermanRating 4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · 2022-07
L · Sub · R1
Aleksei OleinikRating 1.5Submission
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · 2022-04
L · Dec · R3
Andrei ArlovskiRating 6.2Decision
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · 2022-02
L · KO · R2
Alexandr RomanovRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez · 2021-10