UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
Las Vegas, USA
10 Sept 2022
Middleweight
VS
60%
Tiuliulin
40%
Pickett
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:52
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Tiuliulin
Tiuliulin holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Pickett has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Tiuliulin has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 30 points.
Tiuliulin has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Tiuliulin's chin rating of 30 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Pickett has a chin rating of 26 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Tiuliulin
Pickett
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'2"
77"
Reach
+80"
38
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Tiuliulin
Pickett
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
36.6
24.1
39.7
Performance Avg
23.9
55
Quality of Victory
25
20
Momentum Score
45
Tiuliulin
Pickett
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.6
0.9
45%
Strike Accuracy
40%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.4
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
37
Head
21
14
Body
3
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
30Distance23
15Clinch2
6Ground0
Tiuliulin
Pickett
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Tiuliulin
Pickett
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
30
26
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/20 fights
Chin rating based on
9/24 fights
Tiuliulin
Pickett
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
45
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
Tiuliulin
Pickett
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Tiuliulin
Pickett
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.4
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.7
0.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.4
TiuliulinPickett
Strike Zones
Tiuliulin
Attacking
51 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedPickett
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
51 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Tiuliulin targets the head (73% of attacks) — Pickett absorbs 73% of strikes there
🎯Pickett targets the head (84% of attacks) — Tiuliulin absorbs 84% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Tiuliulin
RND
Pickett
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0
Tiuliulin · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.2WinLossTrend
Pickett · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Tiuliulin · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Sedriques DumasRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · KO · R2
Christian Leroy DuncanRating 4.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · 2023-11
L · KO · R1
Gregory RodriguesRating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08
L · Sub · R1
JunYong ParkRating 2.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac · 2023-02
W · KO · R2
Jamie PickettRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
Pickett · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Eryk AndersRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · 2024-03
L · Dec · R3
Josh FremdRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · 2023-08
L · Sub · R1
Bo NickalRating 3.2Submission
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · 2023-03
L · KO · R2
Denis TiuliulinRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · Sub · R1
Kyle DaukausRating 2.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill · 2022-02