UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
Chicago, USA
25 Jan 2014
Heavyweight
VS
75%
Miocic
25%
Gonzaga
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Miocic
Miocic is a strong favourite at 75% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 38 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Miocic has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Miocic's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Gonzaga has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Miocic
Gonzaga
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'2"
80"+
Reach
76"
43+
Age
47
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Miocic
Gonzaga
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.3
18.6
64.9
Performance Avg
53.9
59
Quality of Victory
54
78
Momentum Score
59
Miocic
Gonzaga
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.2
53%
Strike Accuracy
48%
7.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.9
9 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
21
Head
4
4
Body
0
2
Leg
2
RangeRange
10Distance6
0Clinch0
17Ground0
Miocic
Gonzaga
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.9
/ 10
2.9
/ 10
0.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
0
Submission wins
4
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Miocic
Gonzaga
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
8
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.6 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/25 fights
Chin rating based on
22/28 fights
Miocic
Gonzaga
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
59
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R4
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Miocic
Gonzaga
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
92%
9
KO / TKO Wins
7
0
Submission Wins
4
5
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Miocic
Gonzaga
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.9
0.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.1
4.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.8
MiocicGonzaga
Strike Zones
Miocic
Attacking
27 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedGonzaga
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
27 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Miocic targets the head (78% of attacks) — Gonzaga absorbs 78% of strikes there
🎯Gonzaga targets the head (67% of attacks) — Miocic absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Miocic
RND
Gonzaga
0/0R00/0
Miocic · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Gonzaga · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.1WinLossTrend
Miocic · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Jon JonesRating 4.5KO/TKO
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · KO · R2
Francis NgannouRating 2.5KO/TKO
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2021-03
W · Dec · R5
Daniel CormierRating 4.5Decision
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · 2020-08
W · KO · R4
Daniel CormierRating 5.4KO/TKO
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
L · KO · R1
Daniel CormierRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier · 2018-07
Gonzaga · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Derrick LewisRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Dos Santos · 2016-04
W · Dec · R3
Konstantin ErokhinRating 4.5Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGregor vs. Team Faber Finale · 2015-12
L · KO · R3
Mirko FilipovicRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro Cop 2 · 2015-04
L · KO · R1
Matt MitrioneRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic · 2014-12
L · Dec · R3
Stipe MiocicRating 6.6Decision
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson · 2014-01