UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo
Des Moines, USA
3 May 2025
Middleweight
VS
54%
Loder
46%
Bekoev
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:44
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Loder
This is a genuine toss-up — Loder at 54% vs Bekoev at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Loder has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 40 points.
Loder has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Loder's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Bekoev has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Loder
Bekoev
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
6'0"
76"+
Reach
72"
34
Age
+30
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Loder
Bekoev
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
70.5
60.6
73.3
Performance Avg
56.0
100
Quality of Victory
60
43
Momentum Score
58
Loder
Bekoev
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
4.2
1.7
68%
Strike Accuracy
58%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
21
7
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
6Distance17
7Clinch5
0Ground1
Loder
Bekoev
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
🥊
Pure striking matchup
Neither fighter has significant grappling in their history
0
Submission wins
0
Loder
Bekoev
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
66
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/11 fights
Chin rating based on
4/25 fights
Loder
Bekoev
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
43
58
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R3
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Loder
Bekoev
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Loder
Bekoev
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.5
0.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.0
LoderBekoev
Strike Zones
Loder
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
23 absorbedBekoev
Attacking
23 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Loder targets the body (54% of attacks) — Bekoev absorbs 54% of strikes there
🎯Bekoev targets the head (91% of attacks) — Loder absorbs 91% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Loder
RND
Bekoev
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0
Loder · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.6WinLossTrend
Bekoev · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.0WinLossTrend
Loder · Last 3
L · KO · R1
Ismail NaurdievRating 2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
L · KO · R1
Azamat BekoevRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
W · KO · R2
Robert ValentinRating 5.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho · 2024-08
Bekoev · Last 4
L · Sub · R3
Tresean GoreRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
L · KO · R3
Yousri BelgarouiRating 6.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
W · KO · R1
Ryan LoderRating 6.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
W · KO · R1
Zach ReeseRating 6KO/TKO
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01