★ Championship Bout · Road to 4 Featherweight Tournament
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2
Sydney, Australia
31 Jan 2026
Road to 4 Featherweight Tournament
VS
94%
Nakamura
6%
Szalay
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 3:48
Keiichiro
Keiichiro Nakamura
8 – 1
5'10"70" reachSouthpaw27 yrsKnockout Artist
CFR 100
Sebastian
Sebastian Szalay
"Seb"
10 – 2
Well-Rounded32 yrsOrthodox66" reach5'6"
CFR 6

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Nakamura

Nakamura is a strong favourite at 94% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 94 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Nakamura has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 100 points.

Szalay has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Nakamura
Szalay
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'6"
70"+
Reach
66"
27+
Age
32
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Nakamura
Szalay
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
100.0
6.2
100.0
Performance Avg
0.0
100
Quality of Victory
0
100
Momentum Score
0
Nakamura
Szalay
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
2.6
45%
Strike Accuracy
51%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
20
6
Body
12
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
17Distance32
1Clinch0
3Ground0
Nakamura
Szalay
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
🥊
Pure striking matchup
Neither fighter has significant grappling in their history
0
Submission wins
0
Nakamura
Szalay
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
100
78
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
1/9 fights
Chin rating based on
1/12 fights
Nakamura
Szalay
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
0
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R3
Nakamura
Szalay
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Nakamura
Szalay
Striking10.0 / 0.0Volume2.0 / 0.0Grappling0.0 / 0.0Wrestling0.0 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure10.0 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
10.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
2.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Nakamura
Strike Zones
Szalay
Nakamura
Attacking
13HEAD6BODY2LEGS21 landed
Absorbing
20HEAD12BODY0LEGS32 absorbed
Szalay
Attacking
20HEAD12BODY0LEGS32 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD6BODY2LEGS21 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Nakamura targets the head (62% of attacks) — Szalay absorbs 62% of strikes there
🎯Szalay targets the head (63% of attacks) — Nakamura absorbs 63% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Nakamura
RND
Szalay
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Nakamura · Last 1

W · KO · R3
Sebastian SzalayRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01

Szalay · Last 1

L · KO · R3
Keiichiro NakamuraRating 7.2
KO/TKO
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01

News & Media

Keiichiro Nakamura · Sebastian Szalay
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