UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett
Las Vegas, USA
24 Jan 2026
Light Heavyweight
VS
54%
Krylov
46%
Bukauskas
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 4:57
Nikita
Nikita Krylov
"The Miner"
31 – 11
6'3"77" reachOrthodox34 yrsPressure Fighter
CFR 60
Modestas
Modestas Bukauskas
"The Baltic Gladiator"
20 – 7
Well-Rounded32 yrsSwitch76" reach6'3"
CFR 52

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Krylov

This is a genuine toss-up — Krylov at 54% vs Bukauskas at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Krylov has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Krylov's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Bukauskas has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Krylov
Bukauskas
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
6'3"
77"+
Reach
76"
34
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Krylov
Bukauskas
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
59.8
51.5
52.7
Performance Avg
49.0
50
Quality of Victory
41
100
Momentum Score
81
Krylov
Bukauskas
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
1.4
60%
Strike Accuracy
43%
5.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.0
5 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
16
13
Body
0
12
Leg
2
RangeRange
35Distance18
1Clinch0
3Ground0
Krylov
Bukauskas
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.6
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.2
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Krylov
Bukauskas
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
10
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
4
4
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/42 fights
Chin rating based on
13/27 fights
Krylov
Bukauskas
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
81
Upcoming
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Krylov
Bukauskas
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
83%
50%
5
KO / TKO Wins
3
5
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Krylov
Bukauskas
Striking5.3 / 5.0Volume2.5 / 5.2Grappling3.7 / 2.2Wrestling2.6 / 1.5Submission4.2 / 1.3Pressure7.5 / 5.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.0
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.2
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
4.2
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.3
7.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.3
2.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.2
Krylov
Strike Zones
Bukauskas
Krylov
Attacking
14HEAD13BODY12LEGS39 landed
Absorbing
16HEAD0BODY2LEGS18 absorbed
Bukauskas
Attacking
16HEAD0BODY2LEGS18 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD13BODY12LEGS39 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Krylov targets the head (36% of attacks) — Bukauskas absorbs 36% of strikes there
🎯Bukauskas targets the head (89% of attacks) — Krylov absorbs 89% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Krylov
RND
Bukauskas
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Krylov · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0104.0L5.0W2.1L5.0W5.0W5.6W5.2W5.4W1.5L3.3L5.8W5.9L5.3W7.0L2.2L5.0W5.3W5.4W2.5L3.5L6.3W2013-082016-052020-032025-042026-01
WinLossTrend

Bukauskas · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.0W3.0L6.5L3.7L5.5W4.5W3.9L5.9W5.0W4.8W5.7W5.2L4.5W2020-072023-022025-022026-05
WinLossTrend

Krylov · Last 5

Upcoming
Robert Whittaker
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
W · KO · R3
Modestas BukauskasRating 6.3
KO/TKO
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
L · KO · R1
Bogdan GuskovRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07
L · KO · R1
Dominick ReyesRating 2.5
KO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Sub · R1
Ryan SpannRating 5.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · 2023-03

Bukauskas · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Christian EdwardsRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05
L · KO · R3
Nikita KrylovRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · KO · R1
Paul CraigRating 5.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Ion CutelabaRating 4.8
Decision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
W · KO · R1
Rafael CerqueiraRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02

News & Media

Nikita Krylov · Modestas Bukauskas
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