METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
26 Oct 2024
Light Heavyweight
VS
94%
Aslan
6%
Cerqueira
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:51
★ Official Result
Ibo AslanwinsKO/TKOR1 · 0:51
def. Rafael Cerqueira · UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Aslan
→
Actual result
Aslan wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Aslan is a strong favourite at 94% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 50 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Aslan has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 55 points.
Risk flags
Aslan's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Cerqueira has a chin rating of 42 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
AslanCerqueira
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Aslan
Cerqueira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
6'3"
77"+
Reach
76"
30+
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Aslan
Cerqueira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
53.7
3.4
49.0
Performance Avg
0.0
55
Quality of Victory
0
46
Momentum Score
0
Aslan
Cerqueira
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
10.0
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
8.2
Style: Pressure
0.0
0.8
Style: Volume
0.0
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
26
Head
0
2
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
28Distance1
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Aslan
Cerqueira
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
🥊
Pure striking matchup
Neither fighter has significant grappling in their history
0
Submission wins
0
Aslan
Cerqueira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
42
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/18 fights
Chin rating based on
4/15 fights
Aslan
Cerqueira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
46
0
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Aslan
Cerqueira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Aslan
Cerqueira
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
0.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
AslanCerqueira
Strike Zones
Aslan
Attacking
28 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedCerqueira
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
28 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Aslan targets the head (93% of attacks) — Cerqueira absorbs 93% of strikes there
🎯Cerqueira targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Aslan absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Aslan
RND
Cerqueira
0/0R00/0
Aslan · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Iwo BaraniewskiKO/TKO
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
L · Dec · R3
Billy ElekanaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07
L · Sub · R1
Ion CutelabaSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02
W · KO · R1
Rafael CerqueiraKO/TKO
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · KO · R3
Anton TurkaljKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · 2024-03
Cerqueira · Last 4
L · Sub · R1
Abdul Rakhman YakhyaevSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
L · Dec · R3
Julius WalkerDecision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
L · KO · R1
Modestas BukauskasKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02
L · KO · R1
Ibo AslanKO/TKO
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10