UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
26 Oct 2024
Light Heavyweight
VS
94%
Aslan
6%
Cerqueira
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:51
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Aslan
Aslan is a strong favourite at 94% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 50 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Aslan has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 55 points.
Aslan has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Aslan's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Cerqueira has a chin rating of 42 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Aslan
Cerqueira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
6'3"
77"+
Reach
76"
30+
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Aslan
Cerqueira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
53.7
3.4
49.0
Performance Avg
0.0
55
Quality of Victory
0
46
Momentum Score
0
Aslan
Cerqueira
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.8
0.8
53%
Strike Accuracy
46%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
26
Head
0
2
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
28Distance1
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Aslan
Cerqueira
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
🥊
Pure striking matchup
Neither fighter has significant grappling in their history
0
Submission wins
0
Aslan
Cerqueira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
42
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/18 fights
Chin rating based on
4/15 fights
Aslan
Cerqueira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
46
0
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Aslan
Cerqueira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Aslan
Cerqueira
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
0.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
AslanCerqueira
Strike Zones
Aslan
Attacking
28 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedCerqueira
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
28 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Aslan targets the head (93% of attacks) — Cerqueira absorbs 93% of strikes there
🎯Cerqueira targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Aslan absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Aslan
RND
Cerqueira
0/0R00/0
Aslan · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Cerqueira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.5WinLossTrend
Aslan · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Iwo BaraniewskiRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
L · Dec · R3
Billy ElekanaRating 7.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07
L · Sub · R1
Ion CutelabaRating 1.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02
W · KO · R1
Rafael CerqueiraRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · KO · R3
Anton TurkaljRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · 2024-03
Cerqueira · Last 4
L · Sub · R1
Abdul Rakhman YakhyaevRating 3.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
L · Dec · R3
Julius WalkerRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
L · KO · R1
Modestas BukauskasRating 2.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02
L · KO · R1
Ibo AslanRating 2.4KO/TKO
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10