UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans
Tampa, USA
16 Apr 2016
Catch Weight
VS
73%
Nurmagomedov
27%
Horcher
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 3:38
KN
Khabib Nurmagomedov
"The Eagle"
29 – 0
5'10"70" reachOrthodox37 yrs13-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 26
DH
Darrell Horcher
"The Saint"
13 – 4
Well-Rounded2-fight slide38 yrsSouthpaw70" reach5'10"
CFR 10

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Nurmagomedov

Nurmagomedov is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Nurmagomedov has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 22 points.

Nurmagomedov has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Horcher has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Nurmagomedov
Horcher
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
70"
Reach
70"
37+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Nurmagomedov
Horcher
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
25.9
9.8
68.2
Performance Avg
25.0
47
Quality of Victory
25
100
Momentum Score
33
Nurmagomedov
Horcher
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
0.7
50%
Strike Accuracy
38%
3.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
48
Head
2
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance1
0Clinch0
47Ground1
Nurmagomedov
Horcher
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.2
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
2.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
3.9
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
5
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Nurmagomedov
Horcher
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
100
64
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/29 fights
Chin rating based on
4/17 fights
Nurmagomedov
Horcher
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
33
13-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R4
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Nurmagomedov
Horcher
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
54%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
5
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Nurmagomedov
Horcher
Striking3.5 / 0.5Volume5.7 / 8.5Grappling4.2 / 2.4Wrestling2.9 / 1.7Submission3.9 / 0.0Pressure6.8 / 0.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
4.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
3.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
Nurmagomedov
Strike Zones
Horcher
Nurmagomedov
Attacking
48HEAD0BODY0LEGS48 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Horcher
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
48HEAD0BODY0LEGS48 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Nurmagomedov targets the head (100% of attacks) — Horcher absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Horcher targets the head (100% of attacks) — Nurmagomedov absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Nurmagomedov
RND
Horcher
0/0R00/0

Nurmagomedov · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.5W4.5W5.0W4.5W4.5W4.7W5.2W5.6W5.0W4.5W7.3W6.6W6.7W2012-012013-092017-122020-10
WinLossTrend

Horcher · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.6
0102.8L4.5W5.5L1.7L2016-042017-062017-122018-11
WinLossTrend

Nurmagomedov · Last 5

W · Sub · R2
Justin GaethjeRating 6.7
Submission
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · 2020-10
W · Sub · R3
Dustin PoirierRating 6.6
Submission
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier · 2019-09
W · Sub · R4
Conor McGregorRating 7.3
Submission
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10
W · Dec · R5
Al IaquintaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · 2018-04
W · Dec · R3
Edson BarbozaRating 5
Decision
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm · 2017-12

Horcher · Last 4

L · Sub · R1
Roosevelt RobertsRating 1.7
Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hitters Finale · 2018-11
L · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega · 2017-12
W · Dec · R3
Devin PowellRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · 2017-06
L · KO · R2
Khabib NurmagomedovRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans · 2016-04

News & Media

Khabib Nurmagomedov · Darrell Horcher
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