METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
Las Vegas, USA
20 Aug 2016
Welterweight
VS
38%
Story
62%
Cerrone
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 2:02
★ Official Result
Donald CerronewinsKO/TKOR2 · 2:02
def. Rick Story · UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Cerrone
→
Actual result
Cerrone wins
KO/TKO · R2
Pre-fight analysis
Cerrone holds a meaningful edge at 62% per the CFR ratings — but Story has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Cerrone has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Risk flags
Story's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Cerrone has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
StoryCerrone
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Story
Cerrone
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'1"
71"
Reach
+73"
42+
Age
43
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Story
Cerrone
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.0
28.2
46.0
Performance Avg
53.0
35
Quality of Victory
47
65
Momentum Score
63
Story
Cerrone
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.9
/ 10
5.6
/ 10
4.2
Style: Pressure
6.7
6.6
Style: Volume
3.7
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
10 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
16
1
Body
6
1
Leg
5
RangeRange
2Distance19
0Clinch3
0Ground5
Story
Cerrone
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.9
/ 10
2.8
/ 10
2.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.0
1.7
Submission Style (/10)
2.6
2
Submission wins
6
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Story
Cerrone
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
7
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.1 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/28 fights
Chin rating based on
38/53 fights
Story
Cerrone
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
63
Current form
6-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Story
Cerrone
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
70%
2
KO / TKO Wins
10
2
Submission Wins
6
8
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Story
Cerrone
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.6
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.8
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.6
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
6.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.7
StoryCerrone
Strike Zones
Story
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
27 absorbedCerrone
Attacking
27 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Story targets the body (50% of attacks) — Cerrone absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Cerrone targets the head (59% of attacks) — Story absorbs 59% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Story
RND
Cerrone
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Story · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Donald CerroneKO/TKO
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08
W · Dec · R3
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W · Dec · R5
Gunnar NelsonDecision
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story · 2014-10
W · Sub · R2
Leonardo MafraSubmission
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L · Dec · R3
Kelvin GastelumDecision
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler · 2014-03
Cerrone · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Jim MillerSubmission
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L · KO · R1
Alex MoronoKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · 2021-05
Upcoming
Niko PriceUFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
L · Dec · R3
Anthony PettisDecision
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · KO · R1
Conor McGregorKO/TKO
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