METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
Las Vegas, USA
20 Aug 2016
Welterweight
VS
38%
Story
62%
Cerrone
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 2:02
★ Official Result
Donald CerronewinsKO/TKOR2 · 2:02
def. Rick Story · UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Cerrone
→
Actual result
Cerrone wins
KO/TKO · R2
Pre-fight analysis
Cerrone holds a meaningful edge at 62% per the CFR ratings — but Story has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Cerrone has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Cerrone has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Story's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Cerrone has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
StoryCerrone
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Story
Cerrone
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'1"
71"
Reach
+73"
41+
Age
43
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Story
Cerrone
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.0
28.2
46.0
Performance Avg
53.0
35
Quality of Victory
47
65
Momentum Score
63
Story
Cerrone
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.2
2.3
42%
Strike Accuracy
49%
2.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.6
2 KOs
KO Finishes
10 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
16
1
Body
6
1
Leg
5
RangeRange
2Distance19
0Clinch3
0Ground5
Story
Cerrone
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.8
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Story
Cerrone
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
7
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.1 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/28 fights
Chin rating based on
38/53 fights
Story
Cerrone
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
63
Current form
6-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Story
Cerrone
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
70%
2
KO / TKO Wins
10
2
Submission Wins
6
8
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Story
Cerrone
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.6
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.8
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.6
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
6.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.7
StoryCerrone
Strike Zones
Story
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
27 absorbedCerrone
Attacking
27 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Story targets the body (50% of attacks) — Cerrone absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Cerrone targets the head (59% of attacks) — Story absorbs 59% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Story
RND
Cerrone
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Story · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Cerrone · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Story · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Donald CerroneRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08
W · Dec · R3
Tarec SaffiedineRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt · 2016-05
W · Dec · R5
Gunnar NelsonRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story · 2014-10
W · Sub · R2
Leonardo MafraRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Miller · 2014-07
L · Dec · R3
Kelvin GastelumRating 5.8Decision
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler · 2014-03
Cerrone · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Jim MillerRating 3.2Submission
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · 2022-07
L · KO · R1
Alex MoronoRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · 2021-05
Upcoming
Niko PriceUFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
L · Dec · R3
Anthony PettisRating 5.5Decision
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · KO · R1
Conor McGregorRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · 2020-01