METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
Brisbane, Australia
19 Mar 2016
Lightweight
VS
75%
Matthews
25%
Case
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 4:45
★ Official Result
Jake MatthewswinsSubmissionR3 · 4:45
def. Johnny Case · UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Matthews
→
Actual result
Matthews wins
Submission · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Matthews is a strong favourite at 75% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 37 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Matthews's chin rating of 24 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
MatthewsCase
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Matthews
Case
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
73"+
Reach
72"
32+
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Matthews
Case
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.2
18.5
48.4
Performance Avg
49.1
36
Quality of Victory
37
100
Momentum Score
58
Matthews
Case
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.0
/ 10
3.8
/ 10
5.1
Style: Pressure
5.5
5.3
Style: Volume
5.3
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
4
7
Body
4
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
9Distance8
2Clinch0
0Ground0
Matthews
Case
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.2
/ 10
3.2
/ 10
2.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.2
3.8
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
6
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Matthews
Case
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
24
86
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
4
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
18 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/30 fights
Chin rating based on
6/28 fights
Matthews
Case
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
58
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
Matthews
Case
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
44%
50%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
6
Submission Wins
1
9
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Matthews
Case
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.8
4.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
2.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
5.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.3
MatthewsCase
Strike Zones
Matthews
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedCase
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Matthews targets the body (64% of attacks) — Case absorbs 64% of strikes there
🎯Case targets the head (50% of attacks) — Matthews absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Matthews
RND
Case
0/0R00/0
Matthews · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
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