UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
Brisbane, Australia
19 Mar 2016
Lightweight
VS
75%
Matthews
25%
Case
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 4:45
Jake
Jake Matthews
"The Celtic Kid"
22 – 8
5'11"73" reachOrthodox31 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 55
JC
Johnny Case
"Hollywood"
22 – 6
Well-Rounded2-fight slide36 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'10"
CFR 19

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Matthews

Matthews is a strong favourite at 75% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 37 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Matthews has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Matthews's chin rating of 24 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Matthews
Case
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
73"+
Reach
72"
31+
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Matthews
Case
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.4
18.5
48.3
Performance Avg
49.1
37
Quality of Victory
37
100
Momentum Score
58
Matthews
Case
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.1
46%
Strike Accuracy
35%
2.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.8
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
4
7
Body
4
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
9Distance8
2Clinch0
0Ground0
Matthews
Case
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
4.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.2
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Matthews
Case
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
24
86
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
4
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
18 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/30 fights
Chin rating based on
6/28 fights
Matthews
Case
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
58
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
Matthews
Case
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
47%
50%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
6
Submission Wins
1
8
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Matthews
Case
Striking2.0 / 3.8Volume5.0 / 5.3Grappling4.3 / 3.2Wrestling3.0 / 2.2Submission4.0 / 2.5Pressure5.2 / 5.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.8
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.3
Matthews
Strike Zones
Case
Matthews
Attacking
4HEAD7BODY0LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD4BODY0LEGS8 absorbed
Case
Attacking
4HEAD4BODY0LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD7BODY0LEGS11 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Matthews targets the body (64% of attacks) — Case absorbs 64% of strikes there
🎯Case targets the head (50% of attacks) — Matthews absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Matthews
RND
Case
0/0R00/0

Matthews · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.5W5.2W1.5L4.2W5.5W1.5L5.5L4.5W5.3W5.0W4.0L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.1L5.2W6.0L6.0W7.6L5.6W5.2W6.1W4.6L2014-062016-112020-022023-112025-09
WinLossTrend

Case · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.2W5.5W4.5W4.5W5.0L5.5L2014-092015-012015-062015-112016-032017-06
WinLossTrend

Matthews · Last 5

Upcoming
Muslim Salikhov
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
L · Sub · R3
Neil MagnyRating 4.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
W · Sub · R1
Chidi NjokuaniRating 6.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
W · Dec · R3
Francisco PradoRating 5.2
Decision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Phil RoweRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06

Case · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Anthony Rocco MartinRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · 2017-06
L · Sub · R3
Jake MatthewsRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir · 2016-03
W · Dec · R3
Yan CabralRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3 · 2015-11
W · Dec · R3
Francisco TrevinoRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum · 2015-06
W · KO · R3
Frankie PerezRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · 2015-01

News & Media

Jake Matthews · Johnny Case
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