Rei Tsuruya vs Carlos Hernandez — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2

Las Vegas, USA

29 Jun 2024

Flyweight

68%

Tsuruya

32%

Hernandez

Win Probability

Decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Rei Tsuruya

10 – 1

5'6"68" reachOrthodox24 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded

CFR 66

Carlos Hernandez

10 – 5

Well-Rounded32 yrsOrthodox67" reach5'8"

CFR 31

★ Official Result

Rei TsuruyawinsDecisionR3 · 5:00

def. Carlos Hernandez · UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Tsuruya

→

Actual result

Tsuruya wins

Decision · R3

Pre-fight analysis

Tsuruya holds a meaningful edge at 68% per the CFR ratings — but Hernandez has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 34 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Tsuruya has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 19 points.

Risk flags

Hernandez has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

TsuruyaHernandez

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Tsuruya

Hernandez

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'6"

Height

+5'8"

68"+

Reach

67"

24+

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Tsuruya

Hernandez

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

65.5

31.3

56.6

Performance Avg

32.1

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Tsuruya

Hernandez

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

1.5

/ 10

0.9

/ 10

6.9

Style: Pressure

1.3

4.2

Style: Volume

8.9

0 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

0 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

0Distance0

2Clinch4

0Ground2

Tsuruya

Hernandez

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

6.1

/ 10

2.4

/ 10

4.3

Wrestling Style (/10)

1.7

6.7

Submission Style (/10)

0.0

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Tsuruya

Hernandez

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

Never stopped

Verdict

KO risk

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

—

KO round context

Avg R2.0 stoppage

—

Last KO loss

3 fights ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

4/11 fights

Chin rating based on

7/15 fights

Tsuruya

Hernandez

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

2-fight 🔥 win streak

Current form

W · Sub · R1

L · Dec · R3

W · Dec · R3

Last 5

L · Sub · R1

W · Dec · R3

L · Dec · R3

L · KO · R2

W · Dec · R3

Tsuruya

Hernandez

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

67%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Tsuruya

Hernandez

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

1.5

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

0.9

6.1

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

2.4

4.3

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

1.7

6.7

Submission

Submission attack frequency

0.0

6.9

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

1.3

4.2

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

8.9

Tsuruya

Strike Zones

Hernandez

Tsuruya

Attacking

2 landed

Absorbing

6 absorbed

Hernandez

Attacking

6 landed

Absorbing

2 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Tsuruya targets the head (100% of attacks) — Hernandez absorbs 100% of strikes there

🎯Hernandez targets the body (67% of attacks) — Tsuruya absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Tsuruya

RND

Hernandez

0/0R00/0

Tsuruya · Last 4

W · Sub · R1

Kevin Borjas

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song · 2026-08

W · Sub · R1

Luis Gurule

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05

L · Dec · R3

Joshua Van

Decision

UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03

W · Dec · R3

Carlos Hernandez

Decision

UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06

Hernandez · Last 5

L · Sub · R1

HyunSung Park

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05

W · Dec · R3

Nyamjargal Tumendemberel

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo · 2024-11

L · Dec · R3

Rei Tsuruya

Decision

UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06

L · KO · R2

Tatsuro Taira

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · 2023-12

W · Dec · R3

Denys Bondar

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier · 2023-06

News & Media

Rei Tsuruya · Carlos Hernandez

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