UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
Las Vegas, USA
29 Jun 2024
Flyweight
VS
55%
Tsuruya
45%
Hernandez
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Rei
Rei Tsuruya
10 – 1
5'6"68" reachOrthodox23 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 39
Carlos
Carlos Hernandez
10 – 5
Well-Rounded32 yrsOrthodox67" reach5'8"
CFR 31

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Tsuruya

This is a genuine toss-up — Tsuruya at 55% vs Hernandez at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Hernandez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Hernandez has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Tsuruya
Hernandez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'8"
68"+
Reach
67"
23+
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Tsuruya
Hernandez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
38.7
31.3
35.0
Performance Avg
32.1
25
Quality of Victory
25
46
Momentum Score
35
Tsuruya
Hernandez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.4
1.5
43%
Strike Accuracy
47%
1.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.9
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
2
0
Body
4
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance0
2Clinch4
0Ground2
Tsuruya
Hernandez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Tsuruya
Hernandez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
52
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
2
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/11 fights
Chin rating based on
7/15 fights
Tsuruya
Hernandez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
46
35
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Tsuruya
Hernandez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Tsuruya
Hernandez
Striking1.0 / 0.9Volume9.0 / 8.9Grappling2.4 / 2.4Wrestling1.7 / 1.7Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure1.5 / 1.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.3
9.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.9
Tsuruya
Strike Zones
Hernandez
Tsuruya
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD4BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Hernandez
Attacking
2HEAD4BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Tsuruya targets the head (100% of attacks) — Hernandez absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Hernandez targets the body (67% of attacks) — Tsuruya absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Tsuruya
RND
Hernandez
0/0R00/0

Tsuruya · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.8
0104.5W7.1L2024-062025-03
WinLossTrend

Hernandez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.6W3.0L4.5W4.5L5.7L5.6W3.3L2022-022023-062024-062025-05
WinLossTrend

Tsuruya · Last 3

Upcoming
Jesus Aguilar
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Joshua VanRating 7.1
Decision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Carlos HernandezRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06

Hernandez · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
HyunSung ParkRating 3.3
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
W · Dec · R3
Nyamjargal TumendemberelRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Rei TsuruyaRating 5.7
Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
L · KO · R2
Tatsuro TairaRating 4.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · 2023-12
W · Dec · R3
Denys BondarRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier · 2023-06

News & Media

Rei Tsuruya · Carlos Hernandez
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