UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey
Las Vegas, USA
30 Dec 2016
Middleweight
VS
28%
Junior
72%
Vettori
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
AC
Antonio Carlos Junior
"Cara de Sapato"
11 – 5
6'2"79" reachOrthodox36 yrs3-fight slideSubmission Hunter
CFR 19
Marvin
Marvin Vettori
"The Italian Dream"
19 – 10
Well-Rounded4-fight slide32 yrsSouthpaw74" reach6'0"
CFR 50

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Vettori

Vettori is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 31 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Junior has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 22 points.

Vettori has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Junior
Vettori
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
6'0"
79"+
Reach
74"
36
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Junior
Vettori
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.1
50.2
55.3
Performance Avg
40.0
53
Quality of Victory
31
41
Momentum Score
84
Junior
Vettori
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.6
1.4
43%
Strike Accuracy
48%
1.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.1
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
2
1
Body
1
5
Leg
1
RangeRange
1Distance3
4Clinch1
3Ground0
Junior
Vettori
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
6.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.6
4.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Junior
Vettori
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
70
84
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/16 fights
Chin rating based on
19/29 fights
Junior
Vettori
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
41
84
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
Junior
Vettori
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
71%
22%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
5
Submission Wins
2
2
Decision Wins
7

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Junior
Vettori
Striking1.2 / 1.1Volume3.5 / 7.3Grappling6.4 / 3.6Wrestling4.5 / 2.5Submission7.1 / 2.2Pressure6.8 / 3.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.1
6.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.6
4.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.5
7.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.2
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.1
3.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.3
Junior
Strike Zones
Vettori
Junior
Attacking
2HEAD1BODY5LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD1BODY1LEGS4 absorbed
Vettori
Attacking
2HEAD1BODY1LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD1BODY5LEGS8 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Junior targets the legs (63% of attacks) — Vettori absorbs 63% of strikes there
🎯Vettori targets the head (50% of attacks) — Junior absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Junior
RND
Vettori
0/0R00/0

Junior · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.5W5.5L5.5W4.0L5.5W5.3W5.2W5.0W5.0W5.5L5.5L5.5L2014-052016-032017-062019-052021-01
WinLossTrend

Vettori · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.8
0105.0W5.5L4.5W6.9L4.5W4.5W5.0W5.4W5.1W6.9L5.5W6.4L5.9W6.5L6.9L6.8L7.1L2016-082019-102021-102025-072025-12
WinLossTrend

Junior · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Brad TavaresRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor · 2021-01
L · Dec · R3
Uriah HallRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · 2019-09
L · Dec · R3
Ian HeinischRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · 2019-05
W · Sub · R1
Tim BoetschRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · 2018-04
W · Sub · R1
Jack MarshmanRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida · 2017-10

Vettori · Last 5

Upcoming
Ismail Naurdiev
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · 2026-06
L · Dec · R3
Brunno FerreiraRating 7.1
Decision
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
L · Dec · R3
Brendan AllenRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Dec · R5
Roman DolidzeRating 6.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · 2025-03
L · Dec · R5
Jared CannonierRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier · 2023-06

News & Media

Antonio Carlos Junior · Marvin Vettori
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