UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2
Sydney, Australia
31 Jan 2026
Welterweight
VS
58%
Micallef
42%
Elliott
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 3:31
Jonathan
Jonathan Micallef
"The Captain"
10 – 1
6'0"77" reachSouthpaw27 yrs3-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 67
Oban
Oban Elliott
"The Welsh Gangster"
12 – 4
Well-Rounded2-fight slide28 yrsOrthodox72" reach6'0"
CFR 49

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Micallef

This is a genuine toss-up — Micallef at 58% vs Elliott at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Micallef throws more volume but Elliott connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Micallef
Elliott
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
6'0"
77"+
Reach
72"
27+
Age
28
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Micallef
Elliott
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
66.6
48.9
59.9
Performance Avg
44.0
33
Quality of Victory
33
100
Momentum Score
61
Micallef
Elliott
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.2
1.1
46%
Strike Accuracy
56%
2.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.5
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
18
2
Body
0
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
7Distance19
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Micallef
Elliott
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.3
/ 10
1.6
/ 10
3.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.1
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Micallef
Elliott
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
100
86
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/11 fights
Chin rating based on
5/16 fights
Micallef
Elliott
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
61
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Micallef
Elliott
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
33%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Micallef
Elliott
Striking2.0 / 4.5Volume7.3 / 6.5Grappling4.3 / 1.6Wrestling3.0 / 1.1Submission3.3 / 0.0Pressure5.3 / 4.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.5
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.1
7.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.5
Micallef
Strike Zones
Elliott
Micallef
Attacking
5HEAD2BODY1LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
18HEAD0BODY1LEGS19 absorbed
Elliott
Attacking
18HEAD0BODY1LEGS19 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD2BODY1LEGS8 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Micallef targets the head (63% of attacks) — Elliott absorbs 63% of strikes there
🎯Elliott targets the head (95% of attacks) — Micallef absorbs 95% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Micallef
RND
Elliott
0/0R00/0

Micallef · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.2W5.9W4.9W2025-022026-012026-05
WinLossTrend

Elliott · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W4.5W5.5W6.8L4.3L2024-022024-072024-112025-062026-01
WinLossTrend

Micallef · Last 3

W · Dec · R3
Themba GorimboRating 4.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
W · Sub · R2
Oban ElliottRating 5.9
Submission
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01
W · Dec · R3
Kevin JoussetRating 5.2
Decision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02

Elliott · Last 5

L · Sub · R2
Jonathan MicallefRating 4.3
Submission
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01
L · Dec · R3
Seokhyeon KoRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · 2025-06
W · KO · R3
Bassil HafezRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
W · Dec · R3
Preston ParsonsRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · Dec · R3
Val WoodburnRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02

News & Media

Jonathan Micallef · Oban Elliott
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