UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC
Las Vegas, USA
14 Sept 2024
Flyweight
VS
53%
Rodriguez
47%
Osbourne
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
RR
Ronaldo Rodriguez
"Lazy Boy"
17 – 3
5'6"65" reachOrthodox27 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 59
Ode
Ode Osbourne
"The Jamaican Sensation"
13 – 9
Striker34 yrsSouthpaw73" reach5'7"
CFR 51

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Rodriguez

This is a genuine toss-up — Rodriguez at 53% vs Osbourne at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Rodriguez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Osbourne has a chin rating of 16 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Rodriguez
Osbourne
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'7"
65"
Reach
+73"
27+
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Rodriguez
Osbourne
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
58.7
51.3
49.0
Performance Avg
43.7
37
Quality of Victory
45
83
Momentum Score
87
Rodriguez
Osbourne
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.1
44%
Strike Accuracy
41%
1.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.8
0 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
8
0
Body
2
3
Leg
3
RangeRange
8Distance13
0Clinch0
2Ground0
Rodriguez
Osbourne
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.8
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
5.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.0
3.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Rodriguez
Osbourne
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
16
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
3
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
8 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/20 fights
Chin rating based on
14/22 fights
Rodriguez
Osbourne
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
83
87
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
Upcoming
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Rodriguez
Osbourne
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
60%
0
KO / TKO Wins
3
1
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Rodriguez
Osbourne
Striking1.3 / 6.8Volume5.3 / 4.0Grappling5.2 / 1.0Wrestling3.6 / 0.7Submission5.0 / 0.0Pressure5.5 / 5.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.8
5.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.0
3.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.7
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.0
Rodriguez
Strike Zones
Osbourne
Rodriguez
Attacking
7HEAD0BODY3LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD2BODY3LEGS13 absorbed
Osbourne
Attacking
8HEAD2BODY3LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD0BODY3LEGS10 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Rodriguez targets the head (70% of attacks) — Osbourne absorbs 70% of strikes there
🎯Osbourne targets the head (62% of attacks) — Rodriguez absorbs 62% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Rodriguez
RND
Osbourne
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Rodriguez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.2W5.3W5.5L2024-022024-092025-03
WinLossTrend

Osbourne · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0101.8L5.0W3.2L4.5W5.0W1.7L5.4W3.9L2.6L6.7L5.2W6.1L2020-012021-112023-022024-092025-08
WinLossTrend

Rodriguez · Last 3

L · Dec · R3
Kevin BorjasRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Ode OsbourneRating 5.3
Decision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09
W · Sub · R2
Denys BondarRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02

Osbourne · Last 5

Upcoming
Cody Durden
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
Upcoming
Alibi Idiris
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Steve ErcegRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
W · KO · R2
Luis GuruleRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
L · Dec · R3
Ronaldo RodriguezRating 6.7
Decision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09

News & Media

Ronaldo Rodriguez · Ode Osbourne
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