UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis
Norfolk, USA
11 Nov 2017
Light Heavyweight
VS
57%
Collier
43%
Fortuna
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
JC
Jake Collier
"The Prototype"
13 – 10
6'3"78" reachOrthodox37 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 27
MF
Marcel Fortuna
9 – 3
Knockout Artist2-fight slide40 yrsOrthodox74" reach6'1"
CFR 20

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Collier

This is a genuine toss-up — Collier at 57% vs Fortuna at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Fortuna has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 23 points.

Striking split: Collier throws more volume but Fortuna connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Collier's chin rating of 2 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Collier
Fortuna
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'1"
78"+
Reach
74"
37+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Collier
Fortuna
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
26.7
19.8
36.4
Performance Avg
49.3
37
Quality of Victory
60
45
Momentum Score
43
Collier
Fortuna
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
1.7
43%
Strike Accuracy
44%
2.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
25
Head
22
8
Body
1
8
Leg
0
RangeRange
40Distance21
1Clinch2
0Ground0
Collier
Fortuna
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
2.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Collier
Fortuna
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
2
96
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
4
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/23 fights
Chin rating based on
3/12 fights
Collier
Fortuna
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
43
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Collier
Fortuna
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Collier
Fortuna
Striking2.7 / 10.0Volume5.5 / 0.7Grappling3.0 / 0.0Wrestling2.1 / 0.0Submission2.0 / 0.0Pressure3.9 / 8.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
5.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.7
Collier
Strike Zones
Fortuna
Collier
Attacking
25HEAD8BODY8LEGS41 landed
Absorbing
22HEAD1BODY0LEGS23 absorbed
Fortuna
Attacking
22HEAD1BODY0LEGS23 landed
Absorbing
25HEAD8BODY8LEGS41 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Collier targets the head (61% of attacks) — Fortuna absorbs 61% of strikes there
🎯Fortuna targets the head (96% of attacks) — Collier absorbs 96% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Collier
RND
Fortuna
0/0R00/0

Collier · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0101.5L4.5W2.8L5.2W5.5L4.5W3.9L4.5W5.5L5.0W6.2L3.8L6.5L6.5L2014-122017-042021-062023-042023-09
WinLossTrend

Fortuna · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.0W5.5L5.5L2017-022017-072017-11
WinLossTrend

Collier · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Mohammed UsmanRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · 2023-09
L · Dec · R3
Martin BudayRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon · 2023-04
L · KO · R2
Chris BarnettRating 3.8
KO/TKO
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · Dec · R3
Andrei ArlovskiRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · 2022-04
W · Sub · R1
Chase ShermanRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze · 2022-01

Fortuna · Last 3

L · Dec · R3
Jake CollierRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis · 2017-11
L · Dec · R3
Jordan JohnsonRating 5.5
Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Redemption Finale · 2017-07
W · KO · R1
Anthony HamiltonRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bermudez vs. The Korean Zombie · 2017-02

News & Media

Jake Collier · Marcel Fortuna
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