UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
Las Vegas, USA
28 May 2011
Welterweight
VS
49%
Alves
51%
Story
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
TA
Thiago Alves
"Pitbull"
23 – 15
5'9"70" reachOrthodox42 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 17
RS
Rick Story
"The Horror"
19 – 9
Well-Rounded41 yrsSouthpaw71" reach5'9"
CFR 17

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Story

This is a genuine toss-up — Alves at 49% vs Story at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Alves has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Alves's chin rating of 6 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Story has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Alves
Story
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
70"
Reach
+71"
42
Age
+41
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Alves
Story
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.5
17.0
47.3
Performance Avg
46.0
42
Quality of Victory
35
63
Momentum Score
65
Alves
Story
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.2
45%
Strike Accuracy
42%
5.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.9
7 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
25
Head
16
1
Body
5
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
24Distance20
4Clinch2
0Ground0
Alves
Story
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.9
1.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Alves
Story
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
6
56
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/38 fights
Chin rating based on
19/28 fights
Alves
Story
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
65
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
Alves
Story
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
53%
33%
7
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
2
7
Decision Wins
8

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Alves
Story
Striking5.8 / 2.9Volume4.3 / 6.6Grappling1.5 / 2.9Wrestling1.0 / 2.0Submission0.7 / 1.7Pressure5.4 / 4.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.9
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.7
5.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
4.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.6
Alves
Strike Zones
Story
Alves
Attacking
25HEAD1BODY2LEGS28 landed
Absorbing
16HEAD5BODY1LEGS22 absorbed
Story
Attacking
16HEAD5BODY1LEGS22 landed
Absorbing
25HEAD1BODY2LEGS28 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Alves targets the head (89% of attacks) — Story absorbs 89% of strikes there
🎯Story targets the head (73% of attacks) — Alves absorbs 73% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Alves
RND
Story
0/0R00/0

Alves · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0102.8L5.0W5.0W2.8L4.5W5.2W5.2W4.2W5.2W5.2W4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W5.5L5.0W4.0L4.5W5.2W4.4L5.9L4.5W2.8L5.5L5.1W5.5L1.6L2005-102007-112011-052017-042019-12
WinLossTrend

Story · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.5L5.2W4.5W4.5W5.2W4.5W4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W1.5L5.0W5.5L4.5W5.8L5.2W5.6W4.5W2.8L2009-062010-122012-102014-072016-08
WinLossTrend

Alves · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Tim MeansRating 1.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · 2019-12
L · Dec · R3
Laureano StaropoliRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · 2019-05
W · Dec · R3
Max GriffinRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 · 2019-02
L · Dec · R3
Aleksei KunchenkoRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Oleinik · 2018-09
L · KO · R2
Curtis MillenderRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros · 2018-02

Story · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Donald CerroneRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08
W · Dec · R3
Tarec SaffiedineRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt · 2016-05
W · Dec · R5
Gunnar NelsonRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story · 2014-10
W · Sub · R2
Leonardo MafraRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Miller · 2014-07
L · Dec · R3
Kelvin GastelumRating 5.8
Decision
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler · 2014-03

News & Media

Thiago Alves · Rick Story
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