UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
Las Vegas, USA
11 Dec 2021
Flyweight
VS
48%
Kara-France
52%
Garbrandt
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:21
Kai
Kai Kara-France
"Don't Blink"
25 – 12
5'4"69" reachOrthodox33 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 53
Cody
Cody Garbrandt
"No Love"
15 – 7
Striker34 yrsOrthodox65" reach5'8"
CFR 57

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Garbrandt

This is a genuine toss-up — Kara-France at 48% vs Garbrandt at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Kara-France throws more volume but Garbrandt connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Kara-France's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Garbrandt has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Kara-France
Garbrandt
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
+5'8"
69"+
Reach
65"
33+
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Kara-France
Garbrandt
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
52.5
56.6
47.5
Performance Avg
51.6
38
Quality of Victory
47
80
Momentum Score
97
Kara-France
Garbrandt
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
1.3
41%
Strike Accuracy
43%
5.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.2
3 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
18
Head
4
1
Body
0
4
Leg
5
RangeRange
19Distance9
0Clinch0
4Ground0
Kara-France
Garbrandt
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.0
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Kara-France
Garbrandt
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
0
KO risk
Verdict
3 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
4
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/37 fights
Chin rating based on
18/22 fights
Kara-France
Garbrandt
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
80
97
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
Kara-France
Garbrandt
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
38%
60%
3
KO / TKO Wins
6
0
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Kara-France
Garbrandt
Striking5.0 / 7.2Volume6.2 / 4.4Grappling1.5 / 1.0Wrestling1.1 / 0.7Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure4.5 / 6.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.2
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.0
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.0
6.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.4
Kara-France
Strike Zones
Garbrandt
Kara-France
Attacking
18HEAD1BODY4LEGS23 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD0BODY5LEGS9 absorbed
Garbrandt
Attacking
4HEAD0BODY5LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
18HEAD1BODY4LEGS23 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Kara-France targets the head (78% of attacks) — Garbrandt absorbs 78% of strikes there
🎯Garbrandt targets the legs (56% of attacks) — Kara-France absorbs 56% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Kara-France
RND
Garbrandt
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0

Kara-France · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0104.5W4.5W4.5W6.4L4.7W3.5L5.0W6.1W4.5W3.6L6.8L5.6W4.0L2018-122020-022022-032025-06
WinLossTrend

Garbrandt · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.5W4.5W5.0W5.0W5.0W4.5W2.2L1.6L2.0L5.2W6.7L2.4L4.5W5.3W3.8L6.3L5.3W2015-012016-122021-052025-062026-03
WinLossTrend

Kara-France · Last 5

L · Sub · R3
Alexandre PantojaRating 4
Submission
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · KO · R1
Steve ErcegRating 5.6
KO/TKO
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
L · Dec · R5
Amir AlbaziRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06
L · KO · R3
Brandon MorenoRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · 2022-07
W · Dec · R3
Askar AskarovRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · 2022-03

Garbrandt · Last 5

Upcoming
Adrian Yanez
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
W · Dec · R3
Xiao LongRating 5.3
Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
L · Dec · R3
Raoni BarcelosRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
L · Sub · R2
Deiveson FigueiredoRating 3.8
Submission
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · KO · R1
Brian KelleherRating 5.3
KO/TKO
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12

News & Media

Kai Kara-France · Cody Garbrandt
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