METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
Las Vegas, USA
11 Dec 2021
Flyweight
VS
48%
Kara-France
52%
Garbrandt
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:21
★ Official Result
Kai Kara-FrancewinsKO/TKOR1 · 3:21
def. Cody Garbrandt · UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Garbrandt
→
Actual result
Kara-France wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Kara-France at 48% vs Garbrandt at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Striking split: Kara-France throws more volume but Garbrandt connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Kara-France's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Garbrandt has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
Kara-FranceGarbrandt
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Kara-France
Garbrandt
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
+5'8"
69"+
Reach
65"
33+
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Kara-France
Garbrandt
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
52.5
56.6
47.5
Performance Avg
51.6
38
Quality of Victory
47
80
Momentum Score
97
Kara-France
Garbrandt
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.0
1.3
41%
Strike Accuracy
43%
5.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.2
3 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
18
Head
4
1
Body
0
4
Leg
5
RangeRange
19Distance9
0Clinch0
4Ground0
Kara-France
Garbrandt
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.0
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Kara-France
Garbrandt
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
0
KO risk
Verdict
3 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
4
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/37 fights
Chin rating based on
18/22 fights
Kara-France
Garbrandt
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
80
97
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
Kara-France
Garbrandt
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
38%
60%
3
KO / TKO Wins
6
0
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Kara-France
Garbrandt
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.2
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.0
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.0
6.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.4
Kara-FranceGarbrandt
Strike Zones
Kara-France
Attacking
23 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedGarbrandt
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
23 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Kara-France targets the head (78% of attacks) — Garbrandt absorbs 78% of strikes there
🎯Garbrandt targets the legs (56% of attacks) — Kara-France absorbs 56% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Kara-France
RND
Garbrandt
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0
Kara-France · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Garbrandt · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Kara-France · Last 5
L · Sub · R3
Alexandre PantojaRating 4Submission
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · KO · R1
Steve ErcegRating 5.6KO/TKO
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
L · Dec · R5
Amir AlbaziRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06
L · KO · R3
Brandon MorenoRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · 2022-07
W · Dec · R3
Askar AskarovRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · 2022-03
Garbrandt · Last 5
Upcoming
Adrian YanezUFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
W · Dec · R3
Xiao LongRating 5.3Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
L · Dec · R3
Raoni BarcelosRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
L · Sub · R2
Deiveson FigueiredoRating 3.8Submission
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · KO · R1
Brian KelleherRating 5.3KO/TKO
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12