UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Ellenberger
Omaha, USA
15 Feb 2012
Heavyweight
VS
80%
Miocic
20%
Fries
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:43
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Miocic
Miocic is a strong favourite at 80% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 42 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Miocic has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 22 points.
Miocic has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Miocic's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Fries has a chin rating of 34 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Miocic
Fries
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"
Height
+6'5"
80"+
Reach
79"
43
Age
+40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Miocic
Fries
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.3
13.9
64.9
Performance Avg
38.3
59
Quality of Victory
37
78
Momentum Score
43
Miocic
Fries
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.5
53%
Strike Accuracy
47%
7.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
9 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
7
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
5Distance6
0Clinch1
3Ground0
Miocic
Fries
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.9
/ 10
5.2
/ 10
0.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
5.0
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Miocic
Fries
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
34
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/25 fights
Chin rating based on
5/18 fights
Miocic
Fries
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
43
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R4
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Miocic
Fries
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
50%
9
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
5
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Miocic
Fries
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
0.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
4.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
MiocicFries
Strike Zones
Miocic
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedFries
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Miocic targets the head (100% of attacks) — Fries absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Fries targets the head (100% of attacks) — Miocic absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Miocic
RND
Fries
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Miocic · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Fries · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.1WinLossTrend
Miocic · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Jon JonesRating 4.5KO/TKO
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · KO · R2
Francis NgannouRating 2.5KO/TKO
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2021-03
W · Dec · R5
Daniel CormierRating 4.5Decision
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · 2020-08
W · KO · R4
Daniel CormierRating 5.4KO/TKO
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
L · KO · R1
Daniel CormierRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier · 2018-07
Fries · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Matt MitrioneRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Latifi · 2013-04
L · KO · R1
Todd DuffeeRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II · 2012-12
W · Sub · R2
Oli ThompsonRating 5.2Submission
UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera · 2012-08
L · KO · R1
Stipe MiocicRating 2.6KO/TKO
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Ellenberger · 2012-02
W · Dec · R3
Rob BroughtonRating 4.5Decision
UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz · 2011-11