UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
New Orleans, USA
19 Jul 2025
Light Heavyweight
VS
61%
Crute
39%
Prachnio
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:42
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Crute
Crute holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Prachnio has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 23 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Crute has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 22 points.
Prachnio has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Crute's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Prachnio has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Crute
Prachnio
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'3"
74"+
Reach
73"
30+
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Crute
Prachnio
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
66.0
42.9
56.7
Performance Avg
34.0
55
Quality of Victory
33
91
Momentum Score
96
Crute
Prachnio
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
2.2
51%
Strike Accuracy
53%
4.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.2
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
7
0
Body
9
0
Leg
5
RangeRange
4Distance13
0Clinch6
1Ground2
Crute
Prachnio
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.4
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.8
3.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Crute
Prachnio
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
0
KO risk
Verdict
3 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
8 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/18 fights
Chin rating based on
11/26 fights
Crute
Prachnio
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
91
96
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
Upcoming
L · Sub · R2
Upcoming
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
Crute
Prachnio
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
25%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
4
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Crute
Prachnio
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.2
5.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.8
3.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
6.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.8
1.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.7
CrutePrachnio
Strike Zones
Crute
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedPrachnio
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Crute targets the head (100% of attacks) — Prachnio absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Prachnio targets the body (43% of attacks) — Crute absorbs 43% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Crute
RND
Prachnio
0/0R00/0
Crute · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Prachnio · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.1WinLossTrend
Crute · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Ivan ErslanRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
W · Sub · R1
Marcin PrachnioRating 5.4Submission
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
Upcoming
Rodolfo BellatoDecision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
L · Sub · R2
Alonzo MenifieldRating 3.6Submission
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · 2023-07
Upcoming
Alonzo MenifieldDecision
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · 2023-02
Prachnio · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Jimmy CruteRating 3Submission
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Sub · R3
Modestas BukauskasRating 4.8Submission
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · Dec · R3
Devin ClarkRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02
L · Sub · R3
Vitor PetrinoRating 5.1Submission
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · 2023-07
W · Dec · R3
William KnightRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield · 2023-02