UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
Las Vegas, USA
18 Nov 2023
Middleweight
VS
56%
Allen
44%
Craig
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 0:38
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Allen
This is a genuine toss-up — Allen at 56% vs Craig at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Craig throws more volume but Allen connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Allen's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Craig has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Allen
Craig
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'3"
75"
Reach
+76"
30+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Allen
Craig
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
61.8
49.1
56.8
Performance Avg
50.4
43
Quality of Victory
52
88
Momentum Score
46
Allen
Craig
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.5
53%
Strike Accuracy
47%
3.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.3
2 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
2
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance2
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Allen
Craig
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.4
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
4.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.3
3.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Allen
Craig
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
6
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.2 stoppage
12 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/33 fights
Chin rating based on
21/27 fights
Allen
Craig
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
88
46
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
W · KO · R4
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R3
Allen
Craig
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
100%
2
KO / TKO Wins
3
7
Submission Wins
6
5
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Allen
Craig
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
4.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.3
3.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.7
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.7
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.4
4.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.9
AllenCraig
Strike Zones
Allen
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedCraig
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Allen targets the head (75% of attacks) — Craig absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Craig targets the head (100% of attacks) — Allen absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Allen
RND
Craig
0/0R00/0
Allen · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Craig · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Allen · Last 5
Upcoming
Edmen ShahbazyanUFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
W · KO · R4
Reinier de RidderRating 6.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
W · Dec · R3
Marvin VettoriRating 5.3Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Dec · R3
Anthony HernandezRating 6.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02
L · Dec · R3
Nassourdine ImavovRating 6.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09
Craig · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Modestas BukauskasRating 2.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
Upcoming
Rodolfo BellatoUFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
L · Dec · R3
Bo NickalRating 7.2Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · KO · R2
Caio BorralhoRating 4.1KO/TKO
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · Sub · R3
Brendan AllenRating 4.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · 2023-11