★ Championship Bout · Flyweight
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
Las Vegas, USA
27 Sept 2014
Flyweight
VS
64%
Johnson
36%
Cariaso
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 2:29
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Johnson
Johnson holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Cariaso has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Johnson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 28 points.
Striking split: Cariaso throws more volume but Johnson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Cariaso has a chin rating of 68 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Johnson
Cariaso
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'3"
Height
5'3"
66"+
Reach
64"
39+
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Johnson
Cariaso
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
25.2
14.0
69.9
Performance Avg
39.1
58
Quality of Victory
29
85
Momentum Score
45
Johnson
Cariaso
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.3
58%
Strike Accuracy
43%
3.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.5
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
0
1
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
0Distance1
0Clinch0
8Ground0
Johnson
Cariaso
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
4.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.1
2.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Johnson
Cariaso
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
96
68
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
2
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/30 fights
Chin rating based on
13/25 fights
Johnson
Cariaso
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
85
45
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R5
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Johnson
Cariaso
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
47%
14%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
5
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Johnson
Cariaso
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.5
4.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.1
2.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.6
6.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.9
JohnsonCariaso
Strike Zones
Johnson
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedCariaso
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Johnson targets the head (88% of attacks) — Cariaso absorbs 88% of strikes there
🎯Cariaso targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Johnson absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Johnson
RND
Cariaso
0/0R00/0
Johnson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Cariaso · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Johnson · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Henry CejudoRating 7Decision
UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrandt 2 · 2018-08
W · Sub · R5
Ray BorgRating 5.5Submission
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee · 2017-10
W · Sub · R3
Wilson ReisRating 5.2Submission
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis · 2017-04
W · Dec · R5
Tim ElliottRating 4.6Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale · 2016-12
W · KO · R1
Henry CejudoRating 6.5KO/TKO
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux · 2016-04
Cariaso · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Sergio PettisRating 5.5Decision
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10
L · Dec · R3
Henry CejudoRating 7Decision
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos · 2015-03
L · Sub · R2
Demetrious JohnsonRating 2.1Submission
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · 2014-09
W · Dec · R3
Louis SmolkaRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva · 2014-05
W · Dec · R3
Danny MartinezRating 4.5Decision
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · 2014-02