METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
Atlanta, USA
13 Apr 2019
Bantamweight
VS
41%
Davis
59%
Costa
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 1:12
★ Official Result
Brandon DaviswinsSubmissionR2 · 1:12
def. Randy Costa · UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Costa
→
Actual result
Davis wins
Submission · R2
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Davis at 41% vs Costa at 59% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Costa has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 23 points.
Risk flags
Davis's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Costa has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
DavisCosta
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Davis
Costa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
72"
Reach
+73"
36
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Davis
Costa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.5
24.9
31.2
Performance Avg
49.3
37
Quality of Victory
60
15
Momentum Score
13
Davis
Costa
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.4
/ 10
10.0
/ 10
4.2
Style: Pressure
8.0
4.4
Style: Volume
0.7
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
10
3
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
5Distance12
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Davis
Costa
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.2
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
3.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
5.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Davis
Costa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
32
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/24 fights
Chin rating based on
6/10 fights
Davis
Costa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
15
13
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Davis
Costa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Davis
Costa
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
5.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
3.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
4.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.7
DavisCosta
Strike Zones
Davis
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedCosta
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Davis targets the head (50% of attacks) — Costa absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Costa targets the head (83% of attacks) — Davis absorbs 83% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Davis
RND
Costa
0/0R00/0
Davis · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Mana MartinezDecision
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Giga ChikadzeDecision
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L · Dec · R3
Kyung Ho KangDecision
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
W · Sub · R2
Randy CostaSubmission
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2 · 2019-04
Costa · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Guido CannettiSubmission
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L · KO · R2
Tony KelleyKO/TKO
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · 2021-12
L · KO · R2
Adrian YanezKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw · 2021-07
W · KO · R1
Journey NewsonKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
W · KO · R1
Boston SalmonKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman · 2019-10