METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
Atlanta, USA
13 Apr 2019
Bantamweight
VS
41%
Davis
59%
Costa
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 1:12
★ Official Result
Brandon DaviswinsSubmissionR2 · 1:12
def. Randy Costa · UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Costa
→
Actual result
Davis wins
Submission · R2
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Davis at 41% vs Costa at 59% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Costa has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 23 points.
Costa has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Davis's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Costa has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
DavisCosta
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Davis
Costa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
72"
Reach
+73"
36
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Davis
Costa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.5
24.9
31.2
Performance Avg
49.3
37
Quality of Victory
60
15
Momentum Score
13
Davis
Costa
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.4
2.2
36%
Strike Accuracy
49%
0.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
10
3
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
5Distance12
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Davis
Costa
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.2
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
3.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
5.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Davis
Costa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
32
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/24 fights
Chin rating based on
6/10 fights
Davis
Costa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
15
13
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Davis
Costa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Davis
Costa
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
5.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
3.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
4.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.7
DavisCosta
Strike Zones
Davis
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedCosta
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Davis targets the head (50% of attacks) — Costa absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Costa targets the head (83% of attacks) — Davis absorbs 83% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Davis
RND
Costa
0/0R00/0
Davis · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Costa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.6WinLossTrend
Davis · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Mana MartinezRating 5.5Decision
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L · KO · R1
Batgerel DanaaRating 2.1KO/TKO
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L · Dec · R3
Giga ChikadzeRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier · 2019-09
L · Dec · R3
Kyung Ho KangRating 6.4Decision
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
W · Sub · R2
Randy CostaRating 5.2Submission
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2 · 2019-04
Costa · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Guido CannettiRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · 2022-10
L · KO · R2
Tony KelleyRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · 2021-12
L · KO · R2
Adrian YanezRating 4.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw · 2021-07
W · KO · R1
Journey NewsonRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
W · KO · R1
Boston SalmonRating 5KO/TKO
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