UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields
Barueri, Brazil
9 Oct 2013
Lightweight
VS
92%
Patrick
8%
Whiteley
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:54
AP
Alan Patrick
"Nuguette"
15 – 4
5'11"74" reachSouthpaw42 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 23
GW
Garett Whiteley
"Goodnight"
7 – 3
Well-Rounded3-fight slide45 yrsOrthodox72" reach6'0"
CFR 2

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Patrick

Patrick is a strong favourite at 92% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Patrick has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 32 points.

Whiteley has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Patrick's chin rating of 32 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Patrick
Whiteley
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'0"
74"+
Reach
72"
42+
Age
45
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Patrick
Whiteley
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
22.8
2.1
41.4
Performance Avg
0.0
32
Quality of Victory
0
58
Momentum Score
0
Patrick
Whiteley
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
1.5
39%
Strike Accuracy
46%
3.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
3
0
Body
3
3
Leg
1
RangeRange
8Distance4
3Clinch3
5Ground0
Patrick
Whiteley
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.9
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Patrick
Whiteley
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
32
74
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/19 fights
Chin rating based on
3/10 fights
Patrick
Whiteley
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
58
0
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Patrick
Whiteley
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
20%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Patrick
Whiteley
Striking3.1 / 0.0Volume7.5 / 0.0Grappling1.9 / 0.0Wrestling1.3 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure3.1 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
1.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
7.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Patrick
Strike Zones
Whiteley
Patrick
Attacking
13HEAD0BODY3LEGS16 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD3BODY1LEGS7 absorbed
Whiteley
Attacking
3HEAD3BODY1LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD0BODY3LEGS16 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Patrick targets the head (81% of attacks) — Whiteley absorbs 81% of strikes there
🎯Whiteley targets the head (43% of attacks) — Patrick absorbs 43% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Patrick
RND
Whiteley
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Patrick · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0105.0W4.5W2.8L4.5W4.5W4.5W4.0L6.2L2.8L2013-102016-032018-102022-05
WinLossTrend

Whiteley · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.2
0101.5L5.7L5.5L2013-102014-012014-12
WinLossTrend

Patrick · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Michael JohnsonRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · 2022-05
Upcoming
Mason Jones
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai · 2021-06
L · Dec · R3
King GreenRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill · 2020-09
L · KO · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10
W · Dec · R3
Damir HadzovicRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · 2018-02

Whiteley · Last 3

L · Dec · R3
David MichaudRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic · 2014-12
L · Dec · R3
Vinc PichelRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Philippou · 2014-01
L · KO · R1
Alan PatrickRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields · 2013-10

News & Media

Alan Patrick · Garett Whiteley
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