UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev
Las Vegas, USA
8 Mar 2025
Women's Strawweight
VS
51%
Lemos
49%
Lucindo
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Lemos
This is a genuine toss-up — Lemos at 51% vs Lucindo at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Lemos has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Lemos has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Lemos's chin rating of 48 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Lemos
Lucindo
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"+
Height
5'3"
65"
Reach
+66"
39
Age
+24
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Lemos
Lucindo
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.2
53.8
49.6
Performance Avg
46.5
43
Quality of Victory
30
85
Momentum Score
81
Lemos
Lucindo
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.0
56%
Strike Accuracy
47%
4.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.4
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
2
0
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance1
0Clinch2
0Ground1
Lemos
Lucindo
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.5
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Lemos
Lucindo
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
48
96
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
14 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/21 fights
Chin rating based on
7/24 fights
Lemos
Lucindo
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
85
81
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Lemos
Lucindo
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
56%
20%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
1
4
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Lemos
Lucindo
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.4
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.5
2.2
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
5.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.8
LemosLucindo
Strike Zones
Lemos
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedLucindo
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Lemos targets the head (100% of attacks) — Lucindo absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Lucindo targets the head (50% of attacks) — Lemos absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Lemos
RND
Lucindo
0/0R00/0
Lemos · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Lucindo · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Lemos · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Gillian RobertsonRating 6.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
L · Dec · R3
Tatiana SuarezRating 7.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Iasmin LucindoRating 5.4Decision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
L · Sub · R2
Virna JandirobaRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · 2024-07
W · Dec · R3
Mackenzie DernRating 5.7Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
Lucindo · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Angela HillRating 4.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Amanda LemosRating 6.6Decision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Marina RodriguezRating 5.2Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Karolina KowalkiewiczRating 4.5Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
W · Sub · R2
Polyana VianaRating 5.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · 2023-08