METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida
Sao Paulo, Brazil
28 Oct 2017
Welterweight
VS
27%
Maia
73%
Covington
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
DM
Demian Maia
28 – 11
6'1"72" reachSouthpaw48 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 21
Colby
Colby Covington
"Chaos"
17 – 5
Well-Rounded2-fight slide38 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'11"
CFR 55
★ Official Result
Colby CovingtonwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Demian Maia · UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Covington
→
Actual result
Covington wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis

Covington is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 34 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Maia's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Covington has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
MaiaCovington
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Maia
Covington
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'11"
72"
Reach
72"
48
Age
+38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Maia
Covington
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.6
55.0
50.8
Performance Avg
53.2
40
Quality of Victory
42
100
Momentum Score
100
Maia
Covington
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.8
/ 10
3.9
/ 10
5.8
Style: Pressure
5.0
5.0
Style: Volume
6.1
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
3 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
27
0
Body
0
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
11Distance24
2Clinch2
0Ground3
Maia
Covington
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.1
/ 10
2.7
/ 10
3.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.9
5.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.7
11
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Maia
Covington
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
60
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R5.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
33/39 fights
Chin rating based on
17/22 fights
Maia
Covington
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R5
Maia
Covington
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
55%
42%
1
KO / TKO Wins
3
11
Submission Wins
2
10
Decision Wins
7

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Maia
Covington
Striking1.8 / 3.9Volume5.0 / 6.1Grappling5.1 / 2.7Wrestling3.6 / 1.9Submission5.0 / 1.7Pressure5.8 / 5.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.9
5.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
3.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.7
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.1
Maia
Strike Zones
Covington
Maia
Attacking
13HEAD0BODY0LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
27HEAD0BODY2LEGS29 absorbed
Covington
Attacking
27HEAD0BODY2LEGS29 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD0BODY0LEGS13 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Maia targets the head (100% of attacks) — Covington absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Covington targets the head (93% of attacks) — Maia absorbs 93% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Maia
RND
Covington
0/0R00/0

Maia · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Belal Muhammad
Decision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
L · KO · R1
Gilbert Burns
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · 2020-03
W · Sub · R3
Ben Askren
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren · 2019-10
W · Dec · R3
Anthony Rocco Martin
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos · 2019-06
W · Sub · R1
Lyman Good
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 · 2019-02

Covington · Last 5

L · R3
Joaquin Buckley
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · Dec · R5
Leon Edwards
Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · Dec · R5
Jorge Masvidal
Decision
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · Dec · R5
Kamaru Usman
Decision
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11
W · KO · R5
Tyron Woodley
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09

News & Media

Demian Maia · Colby Covington
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