UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida
Sao Paulo, Brazil
28 Oct 2017
Welterweight
VS
35%
Maia
65%
Covington
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Covington
Covington holds a meaningful edge at 65% per the CFR ratings — but Maia has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 29 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Covington throws more volume but Maia connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Maia's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Covington has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Maia
Covington
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'11"
72"
Reach
72"
48
Age
+38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Maia
Covington
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
32.4
61.2
50.8
Performance Avg
53.2
40
Quality of Victory
42
100
Momentum Score
100
Maia
Covington
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.5
0.8
41%
Strike Accuracy
38%
1.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.9
1 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
27
0
Body
0
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
11Distance24
2Clinch2
0Ground3
Maia
Covington
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.7
3.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Maia
Covington
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
60
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R5.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
33/39 fights
Chin rating based on
17/22 fights
Maia
Covington
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R5
Maia
Covington
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
55%
42%
1
KO / TKO Wins
3
11
Submission Wins
2
10
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Maia
Covington
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.9
5.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
3.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.7
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.1
MaiaCovington
Strike Zones
Maia
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
29 absorbedCovington
Attacking
29 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Maia targets the head (100% of attacks) — Covington absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Covington targets the head (93% of attacks) — Maia absorbs 93% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Maia
RND
Covington
0/0R00/0
Maia · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Covington · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Maia · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Belal MuhammadRating 6.6Decision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
L · KO · R1
Gilbert BurnsRating 1.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · 2020-03
W · Sub · R3
Ben AskrenRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren · 2019-10
W · Dec · R3
Anthony Rocco MartinRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos · 2019-06
W · Sub · R1
Lyman GoodRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 · 2019-02
Covington · Last 5
L · R3
Joaquin BuckleyRating 5.9UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · Dec · R5
Jorge MasvidalRating 4.5Decision
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanRating 6.6Decision
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11
W · KO · R5
Tyron WoodleyRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09