★ Championship Bout · Lightweight
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira
Las Vegas, USA
28 Jun 2025
Lightweight
VS
57%
Topuria
43%
Oliveira
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:27
Ilia
Ilia Topuria
"El Matador"
17 – 0
5'7"69" reachOrthodox29 yrs9-fight win streakKnockout Artist
CFR 82
Charles
Charles Oliveira
"Do Bronxs"
37 – 11
Pressure Fighter2-fight win streak36 yrsOrthodox74" reach5'10"
CFR 63

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Topuria

This is a genuine toss-up — Topuria at 57% vs Oliveira at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Topuria has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.

Topuria has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Oliveira has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Topuria
Oliveira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'10"
69"
Reach
+74"
29+
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Topuria
Oliveira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
82.3
63.3
77.5
Performance Avg
58.6
62
Quality of Victory
51
100
Momentum Score
100
Topuria
Oliveira
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.1
54%
Strike Accuracy
53%
8.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.0
6 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
17
Head
3
3
Body
2
1
Leg
4
RangeRange
18Distance8
0Clinch1
3Ground0
Topuria
Oliveira
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
1.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.8
1.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
4.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Topuria
Oliveira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
100
0
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
5
0
Sub Losses
4
—
KO round context
Avg R1.2 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/17 fights
Chin rating based on
37/48 fights
Topuria
Oliveira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
9-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Upcoming
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
Topuria
Oliveira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
78%
84%
6
KO / TKO Wins
4
1
Submission Wins
17
2
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Topuria
Oliveira
Striking8.7 / 3.0Volume3.8 / 2.7Grappling1.4 / 5.8Wrestling1.0 / 4.1Submission1.1 / 6.8Pressure8.4 / 8.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.0
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.8
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.1
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.8
8.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
3.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.7
Topuria
Strike Zones
Oliveira
Topuria
Attacking
17HEAD3BODY1LEGS21 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD2BODY4LEGS9 absorbed
Oliveira
Attacking
3HEAD2BODY4LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
17HEAD3BODY1LEGS21 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Topuria targets the head (81% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 81% of strikes there
🎯Oliveira targets the legs (44% of attacks) — Topuria absorbs 44% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Topuria
RND
Oliveira
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Topuria · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.8
0105.5W5.3W5.0W6.0W6.3W4.6W6.6W6.3W6.4W2020-102022-032024-022025-06
WinLossTrend

Oliveira · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.5W5.5W1.9L1.5L5.0W5.2W2.0L5.5L5.5W5.2W5.0W5.5W2.6L5.0W4.0L2.8L5.0W2.8L5.5W5.4W5.4W5.2W5.2W5.4W5.3W5.0W5.9W6.6W6.6W4.1L6.0W7.1L5.3W3.9L6.2W5.6W2010-082014-062018-062021-122026-03
WinLossTrend

Topuria · Last 5

Upcoming
Justin Gaethje
UFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · KO · R1
Charles OliveiraRating 6.4
KO/TKO
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · KO · R3
Max HollowayRating 6.3
KO/TKO
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · KO · R2
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 6.6
KO/TKO
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
W · Dec · R5
Josh EmmettRating 4.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria · 2023-06

Oliveira · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Max HollowayRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Sub · R2
Mateusz GamrotRating 6.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
Ilia TopuriaRating 3.9
KO/TKO
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · Dec · R5
Michael ChandlerRating 5.3
Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Arman TsarukyanRating 7.1
Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04

News & Media

Ilia Topuria · Charles Oliveira
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