UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
Salt Lake City, USA
29 Jul 2023
Welterweight
VS
52%
Matthews
48%
Flowers
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 2:37
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Matthews
This is a genuine toss-up — Matthews at 52% vs Flowers at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Flowers has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.
Striking split: Matthews throws more volume but Flowers connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Matthews's chin rating of 24 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Matthews
Flowers
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'9"
73"+
Reach
71"
31
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Matthews
Flowers
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.4
50.7
48.3
Performance Avg
43.0
37
Quality of Victory
55
100
Momentum Score
43
Matthews
Flowers
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
0.4
46%
Strike Accuracy
63%
2.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
19
Head
4
3
Body
1
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
12Distance6
0Clinch0
11Ground0
Matthews
Flowers
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Matthews
Flowers
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
24
74
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
4
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
18 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/30 fights
Chin rating based on
4/21 fights
Matthews
Flowers
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
43
Upcoming
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
Matthews
Flowers
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
47%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
6
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Matthews
Flowers
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
MatthewsFlowers
Strike Zones
Matthews
Attacking
23 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedFlowers
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
23 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Matthews targets the head (83% of attacks) — Flowers absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Flowers targets the head (67% of attacks) — Matthews absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Matthews
RND
Flowers
0/0R00/0
Matthews · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Flowers · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Matthews · Last 5
Upcoming
Muslim SalikhovUFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
L · Sub · R3
Neil MagnyRating 4.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
W · Sub · R1
Chidi NjokuaniRating 6.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
W · Dec · R3
Francisco PradoRating 5.2Decision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Phil RoweRating 5.6Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
Flowers · Last 4
W · KO · R2
Lando VannataRating 5.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
L · Sub · R2
Evan ElderRating 3.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07
L · Dec · R3
Michael JohnsonRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02
L · Sub · R2
Jake MatthewsRating 3.8Submission
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07