UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber
Las Vegas, USA
31 May 2025
Light Heavyweight
VS
68%
Jacoby
32%
Lopes
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:50
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Jacoby
Jacoby holds a meaningful edge at 68% per the CFR ratings — but Lopes has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 33 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Jacoby has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 23 points.
Jacoby has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Jacoby's chin rating of 58 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Lopes has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Jacoby
Lopes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'2"
76"+
Reach
74"
38
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Jacoby
Lopes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
62.1
29.2
53.8
Performance Avg
28.3
48
Quality of Victory
25
91
Momentum Score
33
Jacoby
Lopes
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.4
1.1
50%
Strike Accuracy
50%
8.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
7 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
1
0
Body
1
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
11Distance2
6Clinch1
0Ground0
Jacoby
Lopes
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.7
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
0.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Jacoby
Lopes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
58
56
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/31 fights
Chin rating based on
3/17 fights
Jacoby
Lopes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
91
33
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Jacoby
Lopes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
70%
0%
7
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Jacoby
Lopes
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
0.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
0.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
3.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
JacobyLopes
Strike Zones
Jacoby
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedLopes
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Jacoby targets the head (94% of attacks) — Lopes absorbs 94% of strikes there
🎯Lopes targets the head (33% of attacks) — Jacoby absorbs 33% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Jacoby
RND
Lopes
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Jacoby · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Lopes · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Jacoby · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Julius WalkerRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
W · KO · R1
Bruno LopesRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · 2025-05
W · KO · R3
Vitor PetrinoRating 6.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · KO · R1
Dominick ReyesRating 2.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · 2024-06
L · Dec · R3
Alonzo MenifieldRating 6.4Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
Lopes · Last 3
L · KO · R2
Navajo StirlingRating 4.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
L · KO · R1
Dustin JacobyRating 2.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · 2025-05
W · Dec · R3
Magomed GadzhiyasulovRating 4.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01