UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
Phoenix, USA
13 Dec 2014
Lightweight
VS
24%
Ellenberger
76%
Barberena
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 3:24
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Barberena
Barberena is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 30 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Barberena has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 17 points.
Barberena has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Barberena has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Ellenberger
Barberena
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'0"
72"
Reach
72"
41
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Ellenberger
Barberena
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
13.6
43.3
35.0
Performance Avg
43.9
25
Quality of Victory
42
55
Momentum Score
76
Ellenberger
Barberena
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.3
2.7
50%
Strike Accuracy
52%
1.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.4
0 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
27
0
Body
4
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance6
3Clinch4
0Ground21
Ellenberger
Barberena
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.0
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ellenberger
Barberena
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
10
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
9 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
2/17 fights
Chin rating based on
19/30 fights
Ellenberger
Barberena
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
55
76
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R2
Ellenberger
Barberena
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
56%
0
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ellenberger
Barberena
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.4
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.1
1.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.3
9.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.5
EllenbergerBarberena
Strike Zones
Ellenberger
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
31 absorbedBarberena
Attacking
31 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ellenberger targets the head (100% of attacks) — Barberena absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Barberena targets the head (87% of attacks) — Ellenberger absorbs 87% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ellenberger
RND
Barberena
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Ellenberger · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Barberena · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Ellenberger · Last 2
L · KO · R3
Bryan BarberenaRating 4.4KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic · 2014-12
W · Dec · R3
James MoontasriRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Stephens · 2014-06
Barberena · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Gerald MeerschaertRating 3.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura · 2024-03
L · Dec · R3
Makhmud MuradovRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07
L · Sub · R1
Gunnar NelsonRating 2.6Submission
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
L · Sub · R2
Rafael Dos AnjosRating 2.9Submission
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
W · KO · R2
Robbie LawlerRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · 2022-07