UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
Las Vegas, USA
25 Sept 2021
Lightweight
VS
55%
Medic
45%
Turner
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:01
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Medic
This is a genuine toss-up — Medic at 55% vs Turner at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Turner throws more volume but Medic connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Medic's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Turner has a chin rating of 38 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Medic
Turner
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'3"
71"
Reach
+77"
33
Age
+31
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Medic
Turner
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
71.6
59.7
62.7
Performance Avg
56.4
58
Quality of Victory
56
100
Momentum Score
65
Medic
Turner
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.9
3.1
63%
Strike Accuracy
51%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.4
7 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
16
0
Body
8
4
Leg
1
RangeRange
6Distance16
0Clinch3
0Ground6
Medic
Turner
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
3.0
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.1
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
3.8
0
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Medic
Turner
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
38
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/16 fights
Chin rating based on
14/24 fights
Medic
Turner
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
65
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Medic
Turner
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
100%
7
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
3
0
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Medic
Turner
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.4
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.0
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.8
9.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.7
1.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.1
MedicTurner
Strike Zones
Medic
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedTurner
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Medic targets the legs (67% of attacks) — Turner absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Turner targets the head (64% of attacks) — Medic absorbs 64% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Medic
RND
Turner
0/0R00/0
Medic · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Turner · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Medic · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Geoff NealRating 6KO/TKO
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L · KO · R1
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Turner · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Edson BarbozaRating 5.5KO/TKO
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L · Sub · R1
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Renato MoicanoRating 3.5KO/TKO
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