UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
Las Vegas, USA
6 Mar 2021
Welterweight
VS
51%
Brady
49%
Matthews
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 3:28
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Brady
This is a genuine toss-up — Brady at 51% vs Matthews at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Brady has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Brady's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Matthews has a chin rating of 24 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Brady
Matthews
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+5'11"
72"
Reach
+73"
33
Age
+31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Brady
Matthews
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.4
55.4
53.7
Performance Avg
48.3
35
Quality of Victory
37
84
Momentum Score
100
Brady
Matthews
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.2
54%
Strike Accuracy
46%
1.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
3
0
Body
0
5
Leg
1
RangeRange
6Distance4
0Clinch0
11Ground0
Brady
Matthews
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
4.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.3
3.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Brady
Matthews
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
24
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
4
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
18 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/21 fights
Chin rating based on
24/30 fights
Brady
Matthews
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
84
100
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R4
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Brady
Matthews
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
44%
47%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
4
Submission Wins
6
5
Decision Wins
8
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Brady
Matthews
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.0
4.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
3.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
4.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
5.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
BradyMatthews
Strike Zones
Brady
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedMatthews
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Brady targets the head (71% of attacks) — Matthews absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Matthews targets the head (75% of attacks) — Brady absorbs 75% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Brady
RND
Matthews
0/0R00/0
Brady · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Matthews · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Brady · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Joaquin BuckleyRating 5.7Decision
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L · KO · R1
Michael MoralesRating 3.6KO/TKO
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W · Sub · R4
Leon EdwardsRating 6.5Submission
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W · Dec · R5
Gilbert BurnsRating 4.7Decision
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W · Sub · R3
Kelvin GastelumRating 5.8Submission
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Matthews · Last 5
Upcoming
Muslim SalikhovUFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
L · Sub · R3
Neil MagnyRating 4.6Submission
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W · Sub · R1
Chidi NjokuaniRating 6.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
W · Dec · R3
Francisco PradoRating 5.2Decision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Phil RoweRating 5.6Decision
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