UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama
Las Vegas, USA
1 Nov 2025
Women's Strawweight
VS
52%
Alencar
48%
Carnelossi
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 4:36
Talita
Talita Alencar
"Problem Child"
8 – 1
5'1"58" reachOrthodox35 yrs3-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 58
Ariane
Ariane Carnelossi
"Sorriso"
15 – 4
Well-Rounded33 yrsOrthodox61" reach5'2"
CFR 55

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Alencar

This is a genuine toss-up — Alencar at 52% vs Carnelossi at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Carnelossi has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.

Striking split: Alencar throws more volume but Carnelossi connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Alencar
Carnelossi
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'1"
Height
+5'2"
58"
Reach
+61"
35
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Alencar
Carnelossi
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
58.3
54.8
50.0
Performance Avg
47.1
30
Quality of Victory
45
91
Momentum Score
65
Alencar
Carnelossi
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
0.7
39%
Strike Accuracy
44%
1.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.3
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
7
4
Body
1
3
Leg
6
RangeRange
12Distance14
0Clinch0
10Ground0
Alencar
Carnelossi
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
3.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.7
2.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Alencar
Carnelossi
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
84
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/9 fights
Chin rating based on
7/19 fights
Alencar
Carnelossi
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
91
65
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Sub · R3
W · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
Alencar
Carnelossi
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
67%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Alencar
Carnelossi
Striking1.6 / 4.3Volume7.6 / 1.0Grappling3.8 / 2.7Wrestling2.7 / 1.9Submission2.5 / 3.3Pressure4.2 / 6.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.2
7.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.0
Alencar
Strike Zones
Carnelossi
Alencar
Attacking
15HEAD4BODY3LEGS22 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD1BODY6LEGS14 absorbed
Carnelossi
Attacking
7HEAD1BODY6LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
15HEAD4BODY3LEGS22 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Alencar targets the head (68% of attacks) — Carnelossi absorbs 68% of strikes there
🎯Carnelossi targets the head (50% of attacks) — Alencar absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Alencar
RND
Carnelossi
0/0R00/0

Alencar · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.5
0104.5W6.9L4.7W6.5W5.1W2023-122024-082025-042025-112026-04
WinLossTrend

Carnelossi · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.6L5.2W5.5W6.0L5.0W5.2L2019-092021-042021-102022-052024-052025-11
WinLossTrend

Alencar · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Julia PolastriRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · Sub · R3
Ariane CarnelossiRating 6.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Vanessa DemopoulosRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
L · Dec · R3
Stephanie LucianoRating 6.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · 2024-08
W · Dec · R3
Rayanne dos SantosRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · 2023-12

Carnelossi · Last 5

Upcoming
Ketlen Souza
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
L · Sub · R3
Talita AlencarRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · 2025-11
W · R2
Piera RodriguezRating 5
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05
L · Dec · R3
Loopy GodinezRating 6
Decision
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
W · Sub · R3
Istela NunesRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont · 2021-10

News & Media

Talita Alencar · Ariane Carnelossi
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