METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama
Las Vegas, USA
1 Nov 2025
Women's Strawweight
VS
55%
Alencar
45%
Carnelossi
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 4:36
★ Official Result
Talita AlencarwinsSubmissionR3 · 4:36
def. Ariane Carnelossi · UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Alencar
→
Actual result
Alencar wins
Submission · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Alencar at 55% vs Carnelossi at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Carnelossi has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Risk flags
Carnelossi has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
AlencarCarnelossi
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Alencar
Carnelossi
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'1"
Height
+5'2"
58"
Reach
+61"
35
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Alencar
Carnelossi
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
58.3
47.7
50.0
Performance Avg
42.6
30
Quality of Victory
43
91
Momentum Score
52
Alencar
Carnelossi
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.6
/ 10
4.2
/ 10
4.2
Style: Pressure
6.0
7.6
Style: Volume
0.9
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
7
4
Body
1
3
Leg
6
RangeRange
12Distance14
0Clinch0
10Ground0
Alencar
Carnelossi
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.8
/ 10
2.7
/ 10
2.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.9
2.5
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
1
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Alencar
Carnelossi
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
62
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/9 fights
Chin rating based on
7/19 fights
Alencar
Carnelossi
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
91
52
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R3
W · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
Alencar
Carnelossi
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
67%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Alencar
Carnelossi
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.2
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.0
7.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.9
AlencarCarnelossi
Strike Zones
Alencar
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedCarnelossi
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Alencar targets the head (68% of attacks) — Carnelossi absorbs 68% of strikes there
🎯Carnelossi targets the head (50% of attacks) — Alencar absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Alencar
RND
Carnelossi
0/0R00/0
Alencar · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Julia PolastriDecision
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W · Sub · R3
Ariane CarnelossiSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Vanessa DemopoulosDecision
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L · Dec · R3
Stephanie LucianoDecision
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W · Dec · R3
Rayanne dos SantosDecision
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · 2023-12
Carnelossi · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Ketlen SouzaKO/TKO
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L · Sub · R3
Talita AlencarSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · 2025-11
W · R2
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L · Dec · R3
Loopy GodinezDecision
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W · Sub · R3
Istela NunesSubmission
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