UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
New York City, USA
3 Nov 2018
Middleweight
VS
57%
Roberson
43%
Marshman
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
KR
Karl Roberson
"Baby K"
9 – 6
6'1"74" reachSouthpaw35 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 19
JM
Jack Marshman
"The Hammer"
23 – 10
Well-Rounded2-fight slide36 yrsOrthodox73" reach6'0"
CFR 14

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Roberson

This is a genuine toss-up — Roberson at 57% vs Marshman at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Roberson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Roberson's chin rating of 8 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Marshman has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Roberson
Marshman
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
6'0"
74"+
Reach
73"
35+
Age
36
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Roberson
Marshman
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.7
14.2
38.3
Performance Avg
36.0
37
Quality of Victory
35
25
Momentum Score
54
Roberson
Marshman
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.1
55%
Strike Accuracy
25%
0.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.1
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
0
0
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
7Distance0
0Clinch0
4Ground0
Roberson
Marshman
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.6
3.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Roberson
Marshman
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
8
50
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
4
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/15 fights
Chin rating based on
8/33 fights
Roberson
Marshman
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
25
54
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Roberson
Marshman
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
33%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Roberson
Marshman
Striking0.8 / 4.1Volume4.8 / 6.1Grappling5.2 / 1.6Wrestling3.6 / 1.1Submission5.0 / 0.0Pressure4.7 / 3.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.1
5.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
3.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.1
Roberson
Strike Zones
Marshman
Roberson
Attacking
10HEAD0BODY1LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 absorbed
Marshman
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD0BODY1LEGS11 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Roberson targets the head (91% of attacks) — Marshman absorbs 91% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Roberson
RND
Marshman
0/0R00/0

Roberson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.8
0105.0W1.5L4.5W1.9L4.5W6.5W2.3L2.8L3.7L5.3L2017-112019-012020-062022-07
WinLossTrend

Marshman · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.2
0105.2W2.8L4.5W1.5L5.5L4.5W2.9L6.6L2016-112017-072018-112019-072020-10
WinLossTrend

Roberson · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Kennedy NzechukwuRating 5.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · 2022-07
L · KO · R2
Khalil Rountree Jr.Rating 3.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · 2022-03
L · Sub · R1
Brendan AllenRating 2.8
Submission
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · 2021-04
L · Sub · R1
Marvin VettoriRating 2.3
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvillo · 2020-06
W · Sub · R3
Roman KopylovRating 6.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Kattar · 2019-11

Marshman · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Sean StricklandRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva · 2020-10
L · Sub · R1
Edmen ShahbazyanRating 2.9
Submission
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · 2019-07
W · Dec · R3
John PhillipsRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal · 2019-03
L · Dec · R3
Karl RobersonRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis · 2018-11
L · Sub · R1
Antonio Carlos JuniorRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida · 2017-10

News & Media

Karl Roberson · Jack Marshman
← Back to fights