UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2
Las Vegas, USA
6 Dec 2025
Lightweight
VS
43%
Barboza
57%
Turner
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:24
Edson
Edson Barboza
"Junior"
24 – 14
5'11"75" reachOrthodox40 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 45
Jalin
Jalin Turner
"The Tarantula"
15 – 9
Knockout Artist31 yrsSouthpaw77" reach6'3"
CFR 60

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Turner

This is a genuine toss-up — Barboza at 43% vs Turner at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Turner has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.

Turner has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Barboza's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Turner has a chin rating of 38 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Barboza
Turner
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'3"
75"
Reach
+77"
40
Age
+31
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Barboza
Turner
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.9
59.7
46.3
Performance Avg
56.4
40
Quality of Victory
56
60
Momentum Score
65
Barboza
Turner
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
3.1
46%
Strike Accuracy
51%
6.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.4
9 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
29
4
Body
8
2
Leg
2
RangeRange
10Distance33
0Clinch5
0Ground1
Barboza
Turner
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.0
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.0
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Barboza
Turner
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
38
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
32/38 fights
Chin rating based on
14/24 fights
Barboza
Turner
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
65
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R1
Last 5
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Barboza
Turner
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
100%
9
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
3
9
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Barboza
Turner
Striking6.1 / 7.4Volume5.1 / 1.1Grappling1.2 / 3.0Wrestling0.8 / 2.1Submission0.0 / 3.8Pressure5.2 / 8.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.4
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.0
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.8
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.7
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.1
Barboza
Strike Zones
Turner
Barboza
Attacking
4HEAD4BODY2LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
29HEAD8BODY2LEGS39 absorbed
Turner
Attacking
29HEAD8BODY2LEGS39 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD4BODY2LEGS10 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Barboza targets the head (40% of attacks) — Turner absorbs 40% of strikes there
🎯Turner targets the head (74% of attacks) — Barboza absorbs 74% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Barboza
RND
Turner
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0

Barboza · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.5W4.5W4.5W5.5W1.5L5.0W5.2W4.5W1.5L5.0W5.2W5.6L4.5W3.3L4.5W4.5W6.2W5.5L5.5L6.4W3.1L5.5L6.2L4.6W5.5W3.7L6.5L6.2W5.3W7.0L6.5L2.7L2010-112014-042017-032021-052025-12
WinLossTrend

Turner · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0103.0L5.0W5.7L5.6W5.2W6.8W5.4W5.0W6.6L6.4L5.7W3.5L2.8L5.5W2018-102020-092023-032025-032025-12
WinLossTrend

Barboza · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Jalin TurnerRating 2.7
KO/TKO
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
L · Dec · R3
Drakkar KloseRating 6.5
Decision
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
L · Dec · R5
Lerone MurphyRating 7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05
W · Dec · R5
Sodiq YusuffRating 5.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · 2023-10
W · KO · R1
Billy QuarantilloRating 6.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04

Turner · Last 5

W · KO · R1
Edson BarbozaRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
L · Sub · R1
Ignacio BahamondesRating 2.8
Submission
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
L · KO · R2
Renato MoicanoRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · KO · R1
King GreenRating 5.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
L · Dec · R3
Dan HookerRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · 2023-07

News & Media

Edson Barboza · Jalin Turner
← Back to fights