UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann
Saitama, Japan
2 Mar 2013
Bantamweight
VS
45%
Mizugaki
55%
Caraway
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
TM
Takeya Mizugaki
21 – 11
5'7"69" reachOrthodox42 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 16
BC
Bryan Caraway
"Kid Lightning"
21 – 9
Well-Rounded2-fight slide41 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'8"
CFR 20

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Caraway

This is a genuine toss-up — Mizugaki at 45% vs Caraway at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Caraway has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.

Mizugaki has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Mizugaki's chin rating of 18 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Mizugaki
Caraway
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'8"
69"+
Reach
68"
42
Age
+41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Mizugaki
Caraway
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.4
20.0
40.1
Performance Avg
47.9
29
Quality of Victory
40
98
Momentum Score
82
Mizugaki
Caraway
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.1
38%
Strike Accuracy
37%
2.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.2
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
19
Head
14
8
Body
2
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
24Distance14
5Clinch3
0Ground0
Mizugaki
Caraway
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
6.1
1.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
4.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Mizugaki
Caraway
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
18
72
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/32 fights
Chin rating based on
10/30 fights
Mizugaki
Caraway
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
98
82
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Mizugaki
Caraway
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
13%
67%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
4
7
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Mizugaki
Caraway
Striking2.4 / 1.2Volume8.1 / 3.9Grappling2.1 / 6.1Wrestling1.5 / 4.3Submission0.0 / 6.7Pressure2.6 / 6.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.2
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
6.1
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.7
2.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.5
8.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.9
Mizugaki
Strike Zones
Caraway
Mizugaki
Attacking
19HEAD8BODY2LEGS29 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD2BODY1LEGS17 absorbed
Caraway
Attacking
14HEAD2BODY1LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
19HEAD8BODY2LEGS29 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Mizugaki targets the head (66% of attacks) — Caraway absorbs 66% of strikes there
🎯Caraway targets the head (82% of attacks) — Mizugaki absorbs 82% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Mizugaki
RND
Caraway
0/0R00/0

Mizugaki · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.2
0104.5W5.5L5.2W5.5L4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W1.5L5.0L4.5W2.6L1.5L2011-032012-112014-052016-082016-12
WinLossTrend

Caraway · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.2W5.5W5.5L5.5W5.2W5.5L4.5W5.5W5.5L2.0L2011-122013-042015-072018-11
WinLossTrend

Mizugaki · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Eddie WinelandRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
L · KO · R1
Cody GarbrandtRating 2.6
KO/TKO
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08
W · Dec · R3
George RoopRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · 2015-09
L · Sub · R3
Aljamain SterlingRating 5
Submission
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold · 2015-04
L · KO · R1
Dominick CruzRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · 2014-09

Caraway · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Pedro MunhozRating 2
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hitters Finale · 2018-11
L · Dec · R3
Cody StamannRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya · 2018-03
W · Dec · R3
Aljamain SterlingRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt · 2016-05
W · Dec · R3
Eddie WinelandRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II · 2015-07
L · Dec · R3
Raphael AssuncaoRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine · 2014-10

News & Media

Takeya Mizugaki · Bryan Caraway
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