METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann
Saitama, Japan
2 Mar 2013
Bantamweight
VS
45%
Mizugaki
55%
Caraway
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Takeya MizugakiwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Bryan Caraway · UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Caraway
→
Actual result
Mizugaki wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Mizugaki at 45% vs Caraway at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Caraway has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Risk flags
Mizugaki's chin rating of 18 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
MizugakiCaraway
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Mizugaki
Caraway
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'8"
69"+
Reach
68"
42
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Mizugaki
Caraway
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.4
20.0
40.1
Performance Avg
47.9
29
Quality of Victory
40
98
Momentum Score
82
Mizugaki
Caraway
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.4
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
2.6
Style: Pressure
6.5
8.1
Style: Volume
3.9
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
19
Head
14
8
Body
2
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
24Distance14
5Clinch3
0Ground0
Mizugaki
Caraway
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.1
/ 10
6.1
/ 10
1.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
4.3
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
6.7
0
Submission wins
4
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Mizugaki
Caraway
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
18
72
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/32 fights
Chin rating based on
10/30 fights
Mizugaki
Caraway
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
98
82
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Mizugaki
Caraway
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
13%
67%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
4
7
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Mizugaki
Caraway
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.2
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
6.1
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.7
2.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.5
8.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.9
MizugakiCaraway
Strike Zones
Mizugaki
Attacking
29 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedCaraway
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
29 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Mizugaki targets the head (66% of attacks) — Caraway absorbs 66% of strikes there
🎯Caraway targets the head (82% of attacks) — Mizugaki absorbs 82% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Mizugaki
RND
Caraway
0/0R00/0
Mizugaki · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Eddie WinelandKO/TKO
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
L · KO · R1
Cody GarbrandtKO/TKO
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08
W · Dec · R3
George RoopDecision
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · 2015-09
L · Sub · R3
Aljamain SterlingSubmission
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold · 2015-04
L · KO · R1
Dominick CruzKO/TKO
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · 2014-09
Caraway · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Pedro MunhozKO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hitters Finale · 2018-11
L · Dec · R3
Cody StamannDecision
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya · 2018-03
W · Dec · R3
Aljamain SterlingDecision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt · 2016-05
W · Dec · R3
Eddie WinelandDecision
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II · 2015-07
L · Dec · R3
Raphael AssuncaoDecision
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine · 2014-10