UFC 103: Franklin vs Belfort
Dallas, USA
19 Sept 2009
Welterweight
VS
42%
Story
58%
Foster
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 1:09
RS
Rick Story
"The Horror"
19 – 9
5'9"71" reachSouthpaw41 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 17
BF
Brian Foster
"The Foster Boy"
27 – 10
Knockout Artist2-fight win streak42 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'9"
CFR 23

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Foster

This is a genuine toss-up — Story at 42% vs Foster at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Foster has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 20 points.

Foster has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Story's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Story
Foster
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
71"
Reach
71"
41+
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Story
Foster
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.0
23.4
46.0
Performance Avg
56.9
35
Quality of Victory
55
65
Momentum Score
85
Story
Foster
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.8
42%
Strike Accuracy
47%
2.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.9
2 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance0
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Story
Foster
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.7
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Story
Foster
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
76
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/28 fights
Chin rating based on
5/37 fights
Story
Foster
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
85
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R2
Story
Foster
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
100%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
2
Submission Wins
1
8
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Story
Foster
Striking2.9 / 7.9Volume6.6 / 1.2Grappling2.9 / 2.7Wrestling2.0 / 1.9Submission1.7 / 3.3Pressure4.2 / 8.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.9
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.8
6.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.2
Story
Strike Zones
Foster
Story
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 absorbed
Foster
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Story targets the head (100% of attacks) — Foster absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Story
RND
Foster
0/0R00/0

Story · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.5L5.2W4.5W4.5W5.2W4.5W4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W1.5L5.0W5.5L4.5W5.8L5.2W5.6W4.5W2.8L2009-062010-122012-102014-072016-08
WinLossTrend

Foster · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0102.8L5.2W1.5L5.0W5.6W2009-092009-112010-022010-092010-11
WinLossTrend

Story · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Donald CerroneRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08
W · Dec · R3
Tarec SaffiedineRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt · 2016-05
W · Dec · R5
Gunnar NelsonRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story · 2014-10
W · Sub · R2
Leonardo MafraRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Miller · 2014-07
L · Dec · R3
Kelvin GastelumRating 5.8
Decision
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler · 2014-03

Foster · Last 5

W · Sub · R2
Matt BrownRating 5.6
Submission
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida · 2010-11
W · KO · R1
Forrest PetzRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs Palhares · 2010-09
L · Sub · R1
Chris LytleRating 1.5
Submission
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez · 2010-02
W · KO · R2
Brock LarsonRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 106: Ortiz vs Griffin 2 · 2009-11
L · Sub · R2
Rick StoryRating 2.8
Submission
UFC 103: Franklin vs Belfort · 2009-09

News & Media

Rick Story · Brian Foster
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