METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
Milwaukee, USA
31 Aug 2013
Lightweight
VS
47%
Varner
53%
Tibau
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Gleison TibauwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Jamie Varner · UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Tibau
→
Actual result
Tibau wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Varner at 47% vs Tibau at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Varner has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Risk flags
Varner's chin rating of 18 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Tibau has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
VarnerTibau
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Varner
Tibau
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'10"
71"
Reach
71"
41+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Varner
Tibau
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
13.9
15.4
41.1
Performance Avg
43.2
46
Quality of Victory
34
33
Momentum Score
74
Varner
Tibau
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.0
/ 10
1.8
/ 10
5.7
Style: Pressure
3.9
3.3
Style: Volume
6.6
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
22
Head
6
5
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
11Distance6
1Clinch0
15Ground0
Varner
Tibau
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.5
/ 10
3.6
/ 10
2.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.5
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
1
Submission wins
4
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Varner
Tibau
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
18
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
3
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/32 fights
Chin rating based on
28/47 fights
Varner
Tibau
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
33
74
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Varner
Tibau
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
31%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
4
1
Decision Wins
11
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Varner
Tibau
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.8
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.6
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.5
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
5.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.9
3.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.6
VarnerTibau
Strike Zones
Varner
Attacking
27 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTibau
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
27 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Varner targets the head (81% of attacks) — Tibau absorbs 81% of strikes there
🎯Tibau targets the head (100% of attacks) — Varner absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Varner
RND
Tibau
0/0R00/0
Varner · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Drew DoberSubmission
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic · 2014-12
L · KO · R1
James KrauseKO/TKO
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw · 2014-05
L · KO · R2
Abel TrujilloKO/TKO
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · 2014-02
L · Dec · R3
Gleison TibauDecision
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2 · 2013-08
W · Dec · R3
Melvin GuillardDecision
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II · 2012-12
Tibau · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Desmond GreenDecision
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · 2018-06
L · KO · R1
Islam MakhachevKO/TKO
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2018-01
L · R1
Abel TrujilloUFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3 · 2015-11
L · Sub · R1
Tony FergusonSubmission
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano · 2015-02
W · Dec · R3
Norman ParkeDecision
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · 2015-01