UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
Milwaukee, USA
31 Aug 2013
Lightweight
VS
47%
Varner
53%
Tibau
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
JV
Jamie Varner
21 – 11
5'8"71" reachOrthodox41 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 14
GT
Gleison Tibau
33 – 14
Well-Rounded4-fight slide42 yrsSouthpaw71" reach5'10"
CFR 15

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Tibau

This is a genuine toss-up — Varner at 47% vs Tibau at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Varner has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.

Varner has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Varner's chin rating of 18 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Tibau has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Varner
Tibau
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'10"
71"
Reach
71"
41+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Varner
Tibau
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
13.9
15.4
41.1
Performance Avg
43.2
46
Quality of Victory
34
33
Momentum Score
74
Varner
Tibau
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
0.8
44%
Strike Accuracy
35%
4.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.8
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
22
Head
6
5
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
11Distance6
1Clinch0
15Ground0
Varner
Tibau
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.6
2.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Varner
Tibau
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
18
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
3
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/32 fights
Chin rating based on
28/47 fights
Varner
Tibau
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
33
74
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Varner
Tibau
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
31%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
4
1
Decision Wins
11

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Varner
Tibau
Striking4.0 / 1.8Volume3.3 / 6.6Grappling3.5 / 3.6Wrestling2.4 / 2.5Submission3.3 / 2.5Pressure5.7 / 3.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.8
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.6
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.5
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
5.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.9
3.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.6
Varner
Strike Zones
Tibau
Varner
Attacking
22HEAD5BODY0LEGS27 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD0BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Tibau
Attacking
6HEAD0BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
22HEAD5BODY0LEGS27 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Varner targets the head (81% of attacks) — Tibau absorbs 81% of strikes there
🎯Tibau targets the head (100% of attacks) — Varner absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Varner
RND
Tibau
0/0R00/0

Varner · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.9
0104.0L5.0W5.5W4.0L4.5W5.5L2.8L1.5L2.7L2006-082012-082014-022014-12
WinLossTrend

Tibau · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0102.8L4.5W5.0W4.5W5.5L2.8L5.0W5.0W5.5L4.5W5.0W5.9L4.5W5.2W4.7W5.5L4.5W5.5L5.2W4.5W2.8L4.5W4.5W4.5W2.0L4.0L3.5L5.5L2006-112009-042011-112014-072018-06
WinLossTrend

Varner · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Drew DoberRating 2.7
Submission
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic · 2014-12
L · KO · R1
James KrauseRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw · 2014-05
L · KO · R2
Abel TrujilloRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · 2014-02
L · Dec · R3
Gleison TibauRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2 · 2013-08
W · Dec · R3
Melvin GuillardRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II · 2012-12

Tibau · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Desmond GreenRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · 2018-06
L · KO · R1
Islam MakhachevRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2018-01
L · R1
Abel TrujilloRating 4
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3 · 2015-11
L · Sub · R1
Tony FergusonRating 2
Submission
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano · 2015-02
W · Dec · R3
Norman ParkeRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · 2015-01

News & Media

Jamie Varner · Gleison Tibau
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