METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
Milwaukee, USA
31 Aug 2013
Lightweight
VS
47%
Varner
53%
Tibau
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Gleison TibauwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Jamie Varner · UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Tibau
→
Actual result
Tibau wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Varner at 47% vs Tibau at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Varner has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Varner has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Varner's chin rating of 18 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Tibau has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
VarnerTibau
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Varner
Tibau
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'10"
71"
Reach
71"
41+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Varner
Tibau
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
13.9
15.4
41.1
Performance Avg
43.2
46
Quality of Victory
34
33
Momentum Score
74
Varner
Tibau
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.6
0.8
44%
Strike Accuracy
35%
4.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.8
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
22
Head
6
5
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
11Distance6
1Clinch0
15Ground0
Varner
Tibau
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.6
2.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Varner
Tibau
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
18
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
3
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/32 fights
Chin rating based on
28/47 fights
Varner
Tibau
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
33
74
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Varner
Tibau
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
31%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
4
1
Decision Wins
11
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Varner
Tibau
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.8
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.6
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.5
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
5.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.9
3.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.6
VarnerTibau
Strike Zones
Varner
Attacking
27 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTibau
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
27 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Varner targets the head (81% of attacks) — Tibau absorbs 81% of strikes there
🎯Tibau targets the head (100% of attacks) — Varner absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Varner
RND
Tibau
0/0R00/0
Varner · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.9WinLossTrend
Tibau · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Varner · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Drew DoberRating 2.7Submission
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic · 2014-12
L · KO · R1
James KrauseRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw · 2014-05
L · KO · R2
Abel TrujilloRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · 2014-02
L · Dec · R3
Gleison TibauRating 5.5Decision
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2 · 2013-08
W · Dec · R3
Melvin GuillardRating 4.5Decision
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II · 2012-12
Tibau · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Desmond GreenRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · 2018-06
L · KO · R1
Islam MakhachevRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2018-01
L · R1
Abel TrujilloRating 4UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3 · 2015-11
L · Sub · R1
Tony FergusonRating 2Submission
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano · 2015-02
W · Dec · R3
Norman ParkeRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · 2015-01