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UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley
Tampa, USA
14 Dec 2024
Light Heavyweight
VS
48%
Petrino
52%
Jacoby
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 3:44
Vitor
Vitor Petrino
14 – 2
6'2"77" reachOrthodox28 yrs3-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 58
Dustin
Dustin Jacoby
"The Hanyak"
22 – 9
Striker3-fight win streak38 yrsOrthodox76" reach6'3"
CFR 62
★ Official Result
Dustin JacobywinsKO/TKOR3 · 3:44
def. Vitor Petrino · UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Jacoby
→
Actual result
Jacoby wins
KO/TKO · R3
Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Petrino at 48% vs Jacoby at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Jacoby has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Petrino's chin rating of 66 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Jacoby has a chin rating of 58 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
PetrinoJacoby
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Petrino
Jacoby
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'3"
77"+
Reach
76"
28+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Petrino
Jacoby
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.7
62.1
55.0
Performance Avg
53.8
40
Quality of Victory
48
71
Momentum Score
91
Petrino
Jacoby
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.0
2.4
50%
Strike Accuracy
50%
4.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.3
2 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
10
2
Body
3
3
Leg
2
RangeRange
11Distance13
0Clinch1
0Ground1
Petrino
Jacoby
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.7
2.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Petrino
Jacoby
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
66
58
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/16 fights
Chin rating based on
17/31 fights
Petrino
Jacoby
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
71
91
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Petrino
Jacoby
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
57%
70%
2
KO / TKO Wins
7
2
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Petrino
Jacoby
Striking4.4 / 8.3Volume5.0 / 3.6Grappling3.3 / 0.7Wrestling2.3 / 0.5Submission2.9 / 0.0Pressure6.3 / 6.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.3
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.7
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.5
2.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.8
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.6
Petrino
Strike Zones
Jacoby
Petrino
Attacking
6HEAD2BODY3LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD3BODY2LEGS15 absorbed
Jacoby
Attacking
10HEAD3BODY2LEGS15 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD2BODY3LEGS11 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Petrino targets the head (55% of attacks) — Jacoby absorbs 55% of strikes there
🎯Jacoby targets the head (67% of attacks) — Petrino absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Petrino
RND
Jacoby
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Petrino · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.5W5.9W6.1W5.5W2.7L5.4L5.0W5.5W5.9W2023-032024-032025-072026-03
WinLossTrend

Jacoby · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.5L4.0L5.0W4.5W5.0W4.5W5.5W5.6W6.4L7.4L6.3W6.4L2.5L6.6W5.0W5.2W2011-102021-082022-102024-062026-02
WinLossTrend

Petrino · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Steven AsplundRating 5.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
W · KO · R3
Thomas PetersenRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
W · Sub · R1
Austen LaneRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
L · KO · R3
Dustin JacobyRating 5.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · Sub · R1
Anthony SmithRating 2.7
Submission
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05

Jacoby · Last 5

W · KO · R2
Julius WalkerRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
W · KO · R1
Bruno LopesRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · 2025-05
W · KO · R3
Vitor PetrinoRating 6.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · KO · R1
Dominick ReyesRating 2.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · 2024-06
L · Dec · R3
Alonzo MenifieldRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12

News & Media

Vitor Petrino · Dustin Jacoby
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