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UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
11 May 2019
Featherweight
VS
41%
Aldo
59%
Volkanovski
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 Β· 5:00
Jose
Jose Aldo
32 – 10
5'7"70" reachOrthodox39 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 45
Alexander
Alexander Volkanovski
"The Great"
28 – 4
Well-Rounded2-fight win streak37 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'6"
CFR 64
β˜… Official Result
Alexander VolkanovskiwinsDecisionR3 Β· 5:00
def. Jose Aldo Β· UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis Β· prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Volkanovski
β†’
Actual result
Volkanovski wins
Decision Β· R3
Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up β€” Aldo at 41% vs Volkanovski at 59% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Volkanovski has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Aldo's chin rating of 2 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Volkanovski has a chin rating of 54 β€” a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight β€” Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
AldoVolkanovski
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
β€”
Strike Accuracy
β€”
Aldo
Volkanovski
Physical Matchup
Height Β· Reach Β· Age Β· Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'6"
70"
Reach
+71"
39
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Aldo
Volkanovski
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.5
64.0
53.6
Performance Avg
59.8
49
Quality of Victory
44
40
Momentum Score
100
Aldo
Volkanovski
Striking
Career averages Β· see This Fight stats above
0.9
1.9
48%
Strike Accuracy
61%
4.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.0
4 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
14
2
Body
6
0
Leg
16
RangeRange
7Distance18
2Clinch18
0Ground0
Aldo
Volkanovski
Grappling
Career averages Β· see This Fight stats above
1.7
/ 10
1.6
/ 10
1.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.1
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Aldo
Volkanovski
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
2
54
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
7 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
β€”
Strikes absorbed / min
β€”
23/42 fights
Chin rating based on
18/32 fights
Aldo
Volkanovski
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance β€” most recent weighted 30%
40
100
2-fight πŸ“‰ slide
Current form
2-fight πŸ”₯ win streak
L Β· Dec Β· R3
L Β· Dec Β· R3
W Β· Dec Β· R3
L Β· Dec Β· R3
W Β· Dec Β· R5
Last 5
W Β· Dec Β· R5
W Β· Dec Β· R5
L Β· KO Β· R2
L Β· KO Β· R1
W Β· KO Β· R3
Aldo
Volkanovski
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
33%
4
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
0
10
Decision Wins
10

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar β€” 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Aldo
Volkanovski
Striking4.1 / 5.0Volume6.9 / 7.0Grappling1.7 / 1.6Wrestling1.2 / 1.1Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure3.8 / 4.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.0
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.8
6.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.0
Aldo
Strike Zones
Volkanovski
Aldo
Attacking
7HEAD2BODY0LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD6BODY16LEGS36 absorbed
Volkanovski
Attacking
14HEAD6BODY16LEGS36 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD2BODY0LEGS9 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Aldo targets the head (78% of attacks) β€” Volkanovski absorbs 78% of strikes there
🎯Volkanovski targets the legs (44% of attacks) β€” Aldo absorbs 44% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight Β· per-round breakdown

Aldo
RND
Volkanovski
0/0R00/0

Aldo Β· QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.5W4.5W5.0W4.5W5.9W4.5W4.5W3.5L4.5W3.8L3.8L5.5W6.0W7.0L5.5L5.5L5.3W5.0W5.7W6.8L5.0W6.6L6.6L2011-042014-102019-022021-122025-05
WinLossTrend

Volkanovski Β· QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.2W4.5W4.5W5.2W5.0W5.2W5.0W5.6W5.6W5.9W5.9W5.6W7.5L6.8W3.5L4.5L5.8W5.8W2016-112018-122022-042024-022026-01
WinLossTrend

Aldo Β· Last 5

L Β· Dec Β· R3
Aiemann ZahabiRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena Β· 2025-05
L Β· Dec Β· R3
Mario BautistaRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. Β· 2024-10
W Β· Dec Β· R3
Jonathan MartinezRating 5
Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg Β· 2024-05
L Β· Dec Β· R3
Merab DvalishviliRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards Β· 2022-08
W Β· Dec Β· R5
Rob FontRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo Β· 2021-12

Volkanovski Β· Last 5

W Β· Dec Β· R5
Diego LopesRating 5.8
Decision
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 Β· 2026-01
W Β· Dec Β· R5
Diego LopesRating 5.8
Decision
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes Β· 2025-04
L Β· KO Β· R2
Ilia TopuriaRating 4.5
KO/TKO
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria Β· 2024-02
L Β· KO Β· R1
Islam MakhachevRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 Β· 2023-10
W Β· KO Β· R3
Yair RodriguezRating 6.8
KO/TKO
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez Β· 2023-07

News & Media

Jose Aldo Β· Alexander Volkanovski
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