UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
Montreal, Canada
16 Mar 2013
Featherweight
VS
28%
Carvalho
72%
Elkins
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:06
AC
Antonio Carvalho
"Pato"
15 – 6
5'9"70" reachOrthodox46 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 17
Darren
Darren Elkins
"The Damage"
29 – 12
Well-Rounded42 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'10"
CFR 45

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Elkins

Elkins is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 27 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Elkins has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Elkins has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Carvalho
Elkins
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'10"
70"
Reach
+71"
46
Age
+42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Carvalho
Elkins
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.4
44.7
45.5
Performance Avg
46.3
43
Quality of Victory
35
55
Momentum Score
66
Carvalho
Elkins
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.3
28%
Strike Accuracy
38%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.4
1 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
8
0
Body
4
2
Leg
2
RangeRange
6Distance6
3Clinch8
0Ground0
Carvalho
Elkins
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.8
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Carvalho
Elkins
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
0
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/21 fights
Chin rating based on
30/41 fights
Carvalho
Elkins
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
55
66
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Carvalho
Elkins
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
37%
1
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
3
1
Decision Wins
12

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Carvalho
Elkins
Striking6.0 / 3.4Volume5.0 / 6.3Grappling1.2 / 2.8Wrestling0.8 / 1.9Submission0.0 / 1.6Pressure5.0 / 4.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.8
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.6
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
Carvalho
Strike Zones
Elkins
Carvalho
Attacking
7HEAD0BODY2LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD4BODY2LEGS14 absorbed
Elkins
Attacking
8HEAD4BODY2LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD0BODY2LEGS9 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Carvalho targets the head (78% of attacks) — Elkins absorbs 78% of strikes there
🎯Elkins targets the head (57% of attacks) — Carvalho absorbs 57% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Carvalho
RND
Elkins
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Carvalho · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0105.5L5.9W4.5W2.0L2012-012012-072012-112013-03
WinLossTrend

Elkins · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.0W2.9L4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W5.0W1.5L4.5W6.0L4.5W5.5L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.5W4.5W5.3W7.0L4.0L5.5L6.2L5.5W5.2W2.0L4.5W6.0L5.5W5.4W1.7L2010-032013-082017-072021-122025-04
WinLossTrend

Carvalho · Last 4

L · KO · R1
Darren ElkinsRating 2
KO/TKO
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz · 2013-03
W · Dec · R3
Rodrigo DammRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit · 2012-11
W · KO · R1
Daniel PinedaRating 5.9
KO/TKO
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao · 2012-07
L · Dec · R3
Felipe ArantesRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes · 2012-01

Elkins · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Julian ErosaRating 1.7
KO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Dec · R3
Daniel PinedaRating 5.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
W · Sub · R3
TJ BrownRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · 2023-10
L · Dec · R3
Jonathan PearceRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
W · Dec · R3
Tristan ConnellyRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · 2022-04

News & Media

Antonio Carvalho · Darren Elkins
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