METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
Montreal, Canada
16 Mar 2013
Featherweight
VS
28%
Carvalho
72%
Elkins
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:06
★ Official Result
Darren ElkinswinsKO/TKOR1 · 3:06
def. Antonio Carvalho · UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Elkins
→
Actual result
Elkins wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Elkins is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 27 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Elkins has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
CarvalhoElkins
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Carvalho
Elkins
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'10"
70"
Reach
+71"
47
Age
+42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Carvalho
Elkins
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.4
44.3
45.5
Performance Avg
45.5
43
Quality of Victory
35
55
Momentum Score
66
Carvalho
Elkins
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
6.0
/ 10
3.3
/ 10
5.0
Style: Pressure
4.4
5.0
Style: Volume
6.3
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
4 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
8
0
Body
4
2
Leg
2
RangeRange
6Distance6
3Clinch8
0Ground0
Carvalho
Elkins
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.2
/ 10
2.8
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.9
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.6
0
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Carvalho
Elkins
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
0
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
5
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.4 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/21 fights
Chin rating based on
31/41 fights
Carvalho
Elkins
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
55
66
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
Carvalho
Elkins
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
37%
1
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
3
1
Decision Wins
12
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Carvalho
Elkins
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.3
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.8
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.6
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.4
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
CarvalhoElkins
Strike Zones
Carvalho
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedElkins
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Carvalho targets the head (78% of attacks) — Elkins absorbs 78% of strikes there
🎯Elkins targets the head (57% of attacks) — Carvalho absorbs 57% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Carvalho
RND
Elkins
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Carvalho · Last 4
L · KO · R1
Darren ElkinsKO/TKO
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz · 2013-03
W · Dec · R3
Rodrigo DammDecision
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit · 2012-11
W · KO · R1
Daniel PinedaKO/TKO
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao · 2012-07
L · Dec · R3
Felipe ArantesDecision
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes · 2012-01
Elkins · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Yadier del ValleKO/TKO
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