UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
Newark, USA
30 Jan 2016
Middleweight
VS
63%
Natal
37%
Casey
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 3:37
RN
Rafael Natal
"Sapo"
21 – 9
6'0"77" reachOrthodox43 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 15
KC
Kevin Casey
"King"
9 – 5
Well-Rounded2-fight slide44 yrsSouthpaw77" reach5'11"
CFR 9

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Natal

Natal holds a meaningful edge at 63% per the CFR ratings — but Casey has real paths to victory.

Key angles

Striking split: Natal throws more volume but Casey connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Natal's chin rating of 6 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Casey has a chin rating of 34 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Natal
Casey
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'11"
77"
Reach
77"
43+
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Natal
Casey
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.2
9.0
40.5
Performance Avg
25.0
30
Quality of Victory
25
81
Momentum Score
33
Natal
Casey
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.0
50%
Strike Accuracy
51%
2.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
21
Head
2
0
Body
2
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
7Distance4
0Clinch0
16Ground0
Natal
Casey
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.8
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
1.1
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Natal
Casey
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
6
34
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/30 fights
Chin rating based on
7/14 fights
Natal
Casey
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
81
33
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
Upcoming
L · KO · R3
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
Natal
Casey
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
22%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Natal
Casey
Striking2.2 / 0.5Volume7.3 / 8.5Grappling2.8 / 2.4Wrestling1.9 / 1.7Submission1.1 / 0.0Pressure3.2 / 0.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
7.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
Natal
Strike Zones
Casey
Natal
Attacking
21HEAD0BODY2LEGS23 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD2BODY0LEGS4 absorbed
Casey
Attacking
2HEAD2BODY0LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
21HEAD0BODY2LEGS23 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Natal targets the head (91% of attacks) — Casey absorbs 91% of strikes there
🎯Casey targets the head (50% of attacks) — Natal absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Natal
RND
Casey
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Natal · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0105.5L4.5W4.5W2.8L5.5W4.5W4.5W1.5L5.7L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.5W6.4L1.5L2.3L2010-092013-012014-052016-012017-07
WinLossTrend

Casey · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.5
0102.8L4.5W4.0L2.8L2013-042015-072016-012016-08
WinLossTrend

Natal · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Eryk AndersRating 2.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum · 2017-07
L · KO · R1
Tim BoetschRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor · 2016-11
L · Dec · R3
Robert WhittakerRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux · 2016-04
W · KO · R3
Kevin CaseyRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
W · Dec · R3
Uriah HallRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier · 2015-05

Casey · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Sam AlveyRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit · 2016-08
Upcoming
Elvis Mutapcic
Decision
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 · 2016-06
L · KO · R3
Rafael NatalRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
Upcoming
Antonio Carlos Junior
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. VanZant · 2015-12
W · Dec · R3
Ildemar AlcantaraRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee · 2015-07

News & Media

Rafael Natal · Kevin Casey
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