UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
14 Jan 2012
Featherweight
VS
51%
Arantes
49%
Carvalho
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
FA
Felipe Arantes
"Sertanejo"
18 – 10
5'8"73" reachOrthodox38 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 18
AC
Antonio Carvalho
"Pato"
15 – 6
Well-Rounded46 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'9"
CFR 17

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Arantes

This is a genuine toss-up — Arantes at 51% vs Carvalho at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Carvalho throws more volume but Arantes connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Arantes's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Arantes
Carvalho
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'9"
73"+
Reach
70"
38+
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Arantes
Carvalho
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.8
17.4
43.8
Performance Avg
45.5
43
Quality of Victory
43
64
Momentum Score
55
Arantes
Carvalho
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.2
47%
Strike Accuracy
28%
2.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
5
2
Body
0
3
Leg
4
RangeRange
13Distance9
1Clinch0
4Ground0
Arantes
Carvalho
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.4
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
2.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Arantes
Carvalho
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
76
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/28 fights
Chin rating based on
4/21 fights
Arantes
Carvalho
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
64
55
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Arantes
Carvalho
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
50%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Arantes
Carvalho
Striking2.9 / 6.0Volume4.1 / 5.0Grappling4.2 / 1.2Wrestling2.9 / 0.8Submission4.0 / 0.0Pressure5.6 / 5.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
4.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
2.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
4.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
Arantes
Strike Zones
Carvalho
Arantes
Attacking
13HEAD2BODY3LEGS18 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD0BODY4LEGS9 absorbed
Carvalho
Attacking
5HEAD0BODY4LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD2BODY3LEGS18 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Arantes targets the head (72% of attacks) — Carvalho absorbs 72% of strikes there
🎯Carvalho targets the head (56% of attacks) — Arantes absorbs 56% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Arantes
RND
Carvalho
0/0R00/0

Arantes · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0105.5L4.5W5.0W5.5L4.5W6.2L5.0W5.2W5.5L5.6L4.1L2011-082013-092015-082017-102018-06
WinLossTrend

Carvalho · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0105.5L5.9W4.5W2.0L2012-012012-072012-112013-03
WinLossTrend

Arantes · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Song YadongRating 4.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edwards · 2018-06
L · Dec · R3
Josh EmmettRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Till · 2017-10
L · Dec · R3
Erik PerezRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson · 2016-11
W · Sub · R2
Jerrod SandersRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · 2016-07
W · Sub · R1
Yves JabouinRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Oliveira · 2015-08

Carvalho · Last 4

L · KO · R1
Darren ElkinsRating 2
KO/TKO
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz · 2013-03
W · Dec · R3
Rodrigo DammRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit · 2012-11
W · KO · R1
Daniel PinedaRating 5.9
KO/TKO
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao · 2012-07
L · Dec · R3
Felipe ArantesRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes · 2012-01

News & Media

Felipe Arantes · Antonio Carvalho
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