METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland
Orlando, USA
3 Dec 2022
Lightweight
VS
63%
Guida
37%
Holtzman
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Clay GuidawinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Scott Holtzman · UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Guida
→
Actual result
Guida wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Guida holds a meaningful edge at 63% per the CFR ratings — but Holtzman has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Guida's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Holtzman has a chin rating of 48 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
GuidaHoltzman
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Guida
Holtzman
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'9"
70"+
Reach
69"
44
Age
+42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Guida
Holtzman
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.7
23.1
40.7
Performance Avg
40.6
35
Quality of Victory
32
78
Momentum Score
53
Guida
Holtzman
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.1
/ 10
2.5
/ 10
4.2
Style: Pressure
3.6
5.9
Style: Volume
5.7
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
23
13
Body
2
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
19Distance23
4Clinch2
3Ground0
Guida
Holtzman
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.7
/ 10
2.5
/ 10
2.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.8
2.8
Submission Style (/10)
1.4
5
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Guida
Holtzman
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
48
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
8
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
14 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
37/60 fights
Chin rating based on
13/20 fights
Guida
Holtzman
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
53
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · R2
Guida
Holtzman
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
39%
29%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
5
Submission Wins
1
11
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Guida
Holtzman
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.5
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.5
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
2.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.6
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.7
GuidaHoltzman
Strike Zones
Guida
Attacking
26 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedHoltzman
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
26 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Guida targets the body (50% of attacks) — Holtzman absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Holtzman targets the head (92% of attacks) — Guida absorbs 92% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Guida
RND
Holtzman
0/0R00/0
Guida · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Chase HooperSubmission
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L · Dec · R3
Joaquim SilvaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
L · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanDecision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Sub · R1
Claudio PuellesSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · 2022-04
Holtzman · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Clay GuidaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · KO · R2
Mateusz GamrotKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland · 2021-04
L · KO · R1
Beneil DariushKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik · 2020-08
W · Dec · R3
Jim MillerDecision
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz · 2020-02
W · R2
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