UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland
Orlando, USA
3 Dec 2022
Lightweight
VS
58%
Guida
42%
Holtzman
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Clay
Clay Guida
"The Carpenter"
38 – 22
5'7"70" reachOrthodox44 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 44
SH
Scott Holtzman
"Hot Sauce"
14 – 6
Well-Rounded3-fight slide42 yrsOrthodox69" reach5'9"
CFR 32

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Guida

This is a genuine toss-up — Guida at 58% vs Holtzman at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Holtzman has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Guida's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Holtzman has a chin rating of 48 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Guida
Holtzman
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'9"
70"+
Reach
69"
44
Age
+42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Guida
Holtzman
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.2
31.5
40.7
Performance Avg
40.6
35
Quality of Victory
32
78
Momentum Score
53
Guida
Holtzman
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.8
36%
Strike Accuracy
51%
2.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.5
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
23
13
Body
2
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
19Distance23
4Clinch2
3Ground0
Guida
Holtzman
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
3.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.5
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Guida
Holtzman
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
48
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
8
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
14 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
37/60 fights
Chin rating based on
13/20 fights
Guida
Holtzman
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
53
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · R2
Guida
Holtzman
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
39%
29%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
5
Submission Wins
1
11
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Guida
Holtzman
Striking2.1 / 2.5Volume5.9 / 5.7Grappling3.7 / 2.5Wrestling2.6 / 1.8Submission2.8 / 1.4Pressure4.2 / 3.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.5
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.5
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
2.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.6
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.7
Guida
Strike Zones
Holtzman
Guida
Attacking
11HEAD13BODY2LEGS26 landed
Absorbing
23HEAD2BODY0LEGS25 absorbed
Holtzman
Attacking
23HEAD2BODY0LEGS25 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD13BODY2LEGS26 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Guida targets the body (50% of attacks) — Holtzman absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Holtzman targets the head (92% of attacks) — Guida absorbs 92% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Guida
RND
Holtzman
0/0R00/0

Guida · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0105.2W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.0L5.0W4.5W4.5W5.5L2.8L5.2W5.7W5.2W4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.0L4.5W2.8L4.5W1.5L5.4L4.5W5.0W2.9L4.5W1.9L6.2L4.6W5.7L5.3W2.4L4.5W6.3L6.1L2.3L2006-102010-032015-042021-082024-12
WinLossTrend

Holtzman · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.5W6.7L4.5W5.6L4.5W4.5W5.5W5.5L4.2W4.9W2.5L3.8L6.0L2015-082017-042019-082022-12
WinLossTrend

Guida · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Chase HooperRating 2.3
Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Joaquim SilvaRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
L · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Sub · R1
Claudio PuellesRating 2.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · 2022-04

Holtzman · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Clay GuidaRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · KO · R2
Mateusz GamrotRating 3.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland · 2021-04
L · KO · R1
Beneil DariushRating 2.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik · 2020-08
W · Dec · R3
Jim MillerRating 4.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz · 2020-02
W · R2
Dong Hyun MaRating 4.2
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler · 2019-08

News & Media

Clay Guida · Scott Holtzman
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