METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland
Orlando, USA
3 Dec 2022
Lightweight
VS
58%
Guida
42%
Holtzman
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Clay GuidawinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Scott Holtzman · UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Guida
→
Actual result
Guida wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Guida at 58% vs Holtzman at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Holtzman has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Guida's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Holtzman has a chin rating of 48 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
GuidaHoltzman
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Guida
Holtzman
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'9"
70"+
Reach
69"
44
Age
+42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Guida
Holtzman
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.2
31.5
40.7
Performance Avg
40.6
35
Quality of Victory
32
78
Momentum Score
53
Guida
Holtzman
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.0
1.8
36%
Strike Accuracy
51%
2.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.5
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
23
13
Body
2
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
19Distance23
4Clinch2
3Ground0
Guida
Holtzman
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
3.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.5
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Guida
Holtzman
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
48
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
8
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
14 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
37/60 fights
Chin rating based on
13/20 fights
Guida
Holtzman
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
53
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · R2
Guida
Holtzman
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
39%
29%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
5
Submission Wins
1
11
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Guida
Holtzman
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.5
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.5
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
2.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.6
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.7
GuidaHoltzman
Strike Zones
Guida
Attacking
26 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedHoltzman
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
26 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Guida targets the body (50% of attacks) — Holtzman absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Holtzman targets the head (92% of attacks) — Guida absorbs 92% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Guida
RND
Holtzman
0/0R00/0
Guida · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Holtzman · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Guida · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Chase HooperRating 2.3Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Joaquim SilvaRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
L · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Sub · R1
Claudio PuellesRating 2.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · 2022-04
Holtzman · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Clay GuidaRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · KO · R2
Mateusz GamrotRating 3.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland · 2021-04
L · KO · R1
Beneil DariushRating 2.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik · 2020-08
W · Dec · R3
Jim MillerRating 4.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz · 2020-02
W · R2
Dong Hyun MaRating 4.2UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler · 2019-08