UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi
Las Vegas, USA
3 Jun 2023
Featherweight
VS
43%
Caceres
57%
Pineda
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Pineda
This is a genuine toss-up — Caceres at 43% vs Pineda at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Pineda has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 20 points.
Striking split: Caceres throws more volume but Pineda connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Caceres's chin rating of 4 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Pineda has a chin rating of 44 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Caceres
Pineda
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'7"
73"+
Reach
69"
37+
Age
40
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Caceres
Pineda
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.7
52.9
42.2
Performance Avg
47.4
34
Quality of Victory
53
76
Momentum Score
85
Caceres
Pineda
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.1
50%
Strike Accuracy
55%
1.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.8
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
21
Head
6
18
Body
2
1
Leg
5
RangeRange
36Distance13
4Clinch0
0Ground0
Caceres
Pineda
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
3.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
6.4
2.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
4.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Caceres
Pineda
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
4
44
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
5
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
18 fights ago
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
30/36 fights
Chin rating based on
14/45 fights
Caceres
Pineda
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
76
85
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Upcoming
Caceres
Pineda
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
31%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
4
Submission Wins
4
11
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Caceres
Pineda
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.8
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
6.4
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.5
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
8.0
3.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.2
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.8
CaceresPineda
Strike Zones
Caceres
Attacking
40 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedPineda
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
40 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Caceres targets the head (53% of attacks) — Pineda absorbs 53% of strikes there
🎯Pineda targets the head (46% of attacks) — Caceres absorbs 46% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Caceres
RND
Pineda
0/0R00/0
Caceres · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Pineda · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Caceres · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Sean WoodsonRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
L · Dec · R3
Giga ChikadzeRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie · 2023-08
W · Dec · R3
Daniel PinedaRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06
W · KO · R1
Julian ErosaRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · 2022-12
L · Dec · R3
Sodiq YusuffRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · 2022-03
Pineda · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Darren ElkinsRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Nathaniel WoodRating 6.3Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
L · Dec · R3
Alex CaceresRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06
W · Sub · R2
Tucker LutzRating 5.2Submission
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Upcoming
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