UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
Saitama, Japan
25 Feb 2012
Light Heavyweight
VS
52%
Jackson
48%
Bader
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
QJ
Quinton Jackson
"Rampage"
37 – 12
6'1"73" reachOrthodox47 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 22
RB
Ryan Bader
"Darth"
23 – 5
Well-Rounded2-fight win streak42 yrsOrthodox74" reach6'2"
CFR 20

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Jackson

This is a genuine toss-up — Jackson at 52% vs Bader at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Bader has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Bader has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Jackson
Bader
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'2"
73"
Reach
+74"
47
Age
+42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Jackson
Bader
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
21.5
20.1
51.1
Performance Avg
54.2
44
Quality of Victory
40
100
Momentum Score
100
Jackson
Bader
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.1
41%
Strike Accuracy
45%
5.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.8
3 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
13
1
Body
7
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
2Distance3
1Clinch0
0Ground18
Jackson
Bader
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.5
/ 10
2.0
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.4
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.7
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Jackson
Bader
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
80
10
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
2
—
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/49 fights
Chin rating based on
20/28 fights
Jackson
Bader
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R4
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Jackson
Bader
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
38%
40%
3
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
1
5
Decision Wins
9

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Jackson
Bader
Striking5.0 / 4.8Volume6.2 / 6.3Grappling1.5 / 2.0Wrestling1.1 / 1.4Submission0.0 / 0.7Pressure4.5 / 5.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.8
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.0
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.7
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
6.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
Jackson
Strike Zones
Bader
Jackson
Attacking
2HEAD1BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD7BODY1LEGS21 absorbed
Bader
Attacking
13HEAD7BODY1LEGS21 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD1BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Jackson targets the head (67% of attacks) — Bader absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Bader targets the head (62% of attacks) — Jackson absorbs 62% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Jackson
RND
Bader
0/0R00/0

Jackson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.2W5.0W4.5W5.5L5.0W4.5W5.5L4.5W4.5W5.2L5.5L5.9L4.5W2007-022008-122011-052015-04
WinLossTrend

Bader · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.2
0105.0W4.5W4.5W5.5W4.5W4.5L1.5L5.0W4.5W2.8L5.0W1.9L4.5W4.5W5.1W4.5W4.5W1.5L5.2W5.2W2008-122011-022013-012015-012016-11
WinLossTrend

Jackson · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Fabio MaldonadoRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi · 2015-04
L · Dec · R3
Glover TeixeiraRating 5.9
Decision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson · 2013-01
L · Dec · R3
Ryan BaderRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson · 2012-02
L · Sub · R4
Jon JonesRating 5.2
Submission
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage · 2011-09
W · Dec · R3
Matt HamillRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill · 2011-05

Bader · Last 5

W · KO · R3
Rogerio NogueiraRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11
W · KO · R2
Ilir LatifiRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett · 2016-09
L · KO · R1
Anthony JohnsonRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
W · Dec · R3
Rashad EvansRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10
W · Dec · R3
Phil DavisRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson · 2015-01

News & Media

Quinton Jackson · Ryan Bader
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