UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
New York City, USA
2 Nov 2019
Middleweight
VS
58%
Gastelum
42%
Till
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Gastelum
This is a genuine toss-up — Gastelum at 58% vs Till at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Gastelum throws more volume but Till connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Gastelum's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Till has a chin rating of 40 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Gastelum
Till
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'0"
71"
Reach
+74"
34
Age
+33
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Gastelum
Till
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
41.4
30.5
47.4
Performance Avg
44.3
42
Quality of Victory
38
28
Momentum Score
35
Gastelum
Till
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
0.9
43%
Strike Accuracy
49%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.4
3 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
12
5
Body
1
5
Leg
4
RangeRange
12Distance17
3Clinch0
0Ground0
Gastelum
Till
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.6
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Gastelum
Till
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
40
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
4
Sub Losses
3
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
26/32 fights
Chin rating based on
12/23 fights
Gastelum
Till
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
28
35
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Gastelum
Till
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
36%
33%
3
KO / TKO Wins
2
2
Submission Wins
0
9
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Gastelum
Till
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.4
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.0
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.4
GastelumTill
Strike Zones
Gastelum
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTill
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Gastelum targets the head (33% of attacks) — Till absorbs 33% of strikes there
🎯Till targets the head (71% of attacks) — Gastelum absorbs 71% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Gastelum
RND
Till
0/0R00/0
Gastelum · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Till · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Gastelum · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Vicente LuqueRating 3Submission
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · Dec · R3
Dustin StoltzfusRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Joe PyferRating 7.5Decision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Daniel RodriguezRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
L · Sub · R3
Sean BradyRating 5.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
Till · Last 5
L · Sub · R3
Dricus Du PlessisRating 5.9Submission
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · 2022-12
L · Sub · R3
Derek BrunsonRating 3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Till · 2021-09
L · Dec · R5
Robert WhittakerRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
W · Dec · R3
Kelvin GastelumRating 4.8Decision
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11
L · KO · R2
Jorge MasvidalRating 2.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal · 2019-03