UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muhammad
Las Vegas, USA
16 Apr 2022
Welterweight
VS
58%
Baeza
42%
Fialho
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:39
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Baeza
This is a genuine toss-up — Baeza at 58% vs Fialho at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Baeza has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Baeza's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Fialho has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Baeza
Fialho
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
6'0"
74"
Reach
74"
33
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Baeza
Fialho
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
46.1
32.8
49.0
Performance Avg
47.4
53
Quality of Victory
60
39
Momentum Score
20
Baeza
Fialho
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.5
45%
Strike Accuracy
44%
7.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
19
4
Body
5
5
Leg
8
RangeRange
24Distance25
0Clinch5
0Ground2
Baeza
Fialho
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.7
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Baeza
Fialho
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
10
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
4 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/14 fights
Chin rating based on
7/24 fights
Baeza
Fialho
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
39
20
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
Baeza
Fialho
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
100%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Baeza
Fialho
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.9
0.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.6
BaezaFialho
Strike Zones
Baeza
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
32 absorbedFialho
Attacking
32 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Baeza targets the head (63% of attacks) — Fialho absorbs 63% of strikes there
🎯Fialho targets the head (59% of attacks) — Baeza absorbs 59% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Baeza
RND
Fialho
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Baeza · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Fialho · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Baeza · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Punahele SorianoRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · 2024-06
L · KO · R1
Andre FialhoRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muhammad · 2022-04
L · KO · R3
Khaos WilliamsRating 5.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · 2021-11
L · Dec · R3
Santiago PonzinibbioRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai · 2021-06
W · Sub · R2
Takashi SatoRating 5.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark · 2020-11
Fialho · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Tim MeansRating 4.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · 2023-09
L · KO · R2
Joaquin BuckleyRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05
L · KO · R3
Muslim SalikhovRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba · 2022-11
L · KO · R2
Jake MatthewsRating 3.8KO/TKO
UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka · 2022-06
W · KO · R1
Cameron VanCampRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05